MotoGP: Opportunities Aplenty in Brno

The MotoGP World Championship returns to action this weekend after a week off following round two at the Andalusian Grand Prix. 

This weekend sees the MotoGP season head to Brno in the Czech Republic for round three of what is turning out to be a far from regular season in the premier class of Grand Prix motorcycle racing. 

Following his crash at round one, the Spanish Grand Prix, Marc Marqeuz attempted to return to racing action at round two, despite his freshly broken humerus. It was not to be for the reigning champion, and in the time between round two in Jerez and round three in Brno, the #93 was forced to take a second operation to replace the plate that had originally been inserted on the Tuesday after the Spanish Grand Prix. The second operation means Marquez will miss this weekend’s race in Brno, and also potentially the following two rounds at the Austrian and Styrian Grands Prix. 

This opens up a major opportunity for Marquez’ rivals, the likes of Fabio Quartararo, Maverick Vinales and Andrea Dovizioso, who will now look to capitalise on Marquez’s continued absence. 

Intriguingly, this third round takes place at a circuit which has recently been quite good for Ducati and Dovizioso, and not particularly good for Yamaha, Quartararo and Vinales. 

Although Yamaha have been resurgent since the second half of 2019, Brno was a poor race for them. Their top finisher one year ago was Valentino Rossi in sixth, over three seconds ahead of Fabio Quartararo in seventh, but over nine seconds adrift of Marc Marquez, who won. Furthermore, Maverick Vinales was down in tenth place, over 16 seconds behind Marquez. 

Andrea Dovizioso, on the other hand, was second last year, 2.452 seconds behind Marquez, and the year before was victorious in Brno, coming out on top in a three-way battle between himself, his then-teammate Jorge Lorenzo, and Marquez. This recent history in Brno should give Dovizioso confidence that he can recover some of the ground lost in Jerez at round two, where he finished only sixth after qualifying down in 14th. 

And yet it is not all said and done. Dovizioso might be the favourite coming into this weekend, but it cannot be ignored that he finished 12.554 seconds behind Quartararo in the Andalusian Grand Prix, and made no great charge for the podium even as Takaaki Nakagami and Joan Mir closed in on a struggling Valentino Rossi at the end of the race. Dovizioso and Ducati may have a strong recent history in Brno, but the recent history of Yamaha, Vinales and Quartararo in 2020 is just as strong – at least on pace. 

The critical thing for the Yamaha riders this weekend will be to get away. It is hard to see how they could win a straight fight against a Ducati – or any other motorcycle, for that matter – around Brno, especially with the way the lap ends, with the long drag up ‘Horsepower Hill’ towards the final ‘S’-bend at turns 13 and 14. 

Indeed, for Yamaha, victory will be dependent on their ability to escape from the Ducati riders with superior horsepower and acceleration. Therefore, the race pace comparisons on Friday and Saturday will be even more crucial than usual, perhaps. 

Whilst Quartararo and Vinales were able to continue their form in round three, Valentino Rossi’s podium finish came as a surprise and as a result of making drastic changes to the setup of the #46 YZR-M1. Whilst it was a strong ride from Rossi to arrive on the podium for the 199th time in the premier class, there were still signs that his classic issues of rear tyre degradation remained. In the final laps, there was a direct comparison with Vinales, who clearly had far superior grip both on the edge of the tyre and in the centre. It seems that if it was any rider behind Rossi, other than Vinales, the Italian’s defence would not have lasted so long. 

Perhaps, though, this is as damning of Vinales as it is of Rossi’s chances moving forward. Rossi, at least, appears to have a direction to follow in order to find more speed and potentially to remedy his rear tyre wear issues. Vinales, on the other hand, appears as timid in offence as he did in the lowest points of his and Yamaha’s relationship, displayed also in his inability to make the move stick on Quartararo on lap one – which ultimately proved fatal for his victory chances. 

What is certain, though, is that, for Vinales, victory is important this weekend, but more so victory over Quartararo. He needs to take points out of the Frenchman before it is too late, and in a 13-15-round season, round three is already starting to seem a fair way into the season. 

Speed is not the only question to be answered this weekend by the Iwata factory, however. Reliability has become a large concern for Yamaha in 2020, with Rossi, Morbidelli and Vinales all having lost one engine from their allocation. Additionally, Rossi, Morbidelli and Quartararo have all used four engines already in 2020, compared to the two units used by the rest of the field. For Vinales, the situation is even worse, as the #12 has already opened his fifth engine. It will be interesting to see this weekend whether the reliability issues that plagued the M1 riders in Jerez will also be apparent in what should be more agreeable temperatures in Brno. 

If Yamaha’s reliability issues remain, it could be the break Dovizioso needs to grab hold of this 2020 championship. However, he could still face pressure from within his own camp.

Ducati have back-up options this season, or at least they did in Jerez. When Dovizioso was suffering in the Andalusian GP, the Pramac pairing of Jack Miller and Francesco Bagnaia stepped up and fought for the podium, Bagnaia denied only by a breakdown on his Desmosedici. 

Additionally, it is likely that Dovizioso will not find any support from within the Ducati camp at this stage. Jack Miller is already signed up for 2021 with the factory team, and has made clear his championship aspirations for 2020, which will likely be only stronger now with the continued absence of Marquez. Furthermore, Bagnaia appears to be in direct combat with Dovizioso over the second factory seat with the Bologna brand for next season, and beating him in the next races will strengthen his position in those negotiations. 

It is certainly quite remarkable that when the best opportunity to dethrone Marc Marquez since 2015 comes around, all of the people who have the potential to take the crown seem prohibited in some way or another – whether reliability or a shaky relationship with their factory. 

Also, it should not be forgotten that Honda still have horses in this race. Alex Marquez and Stefan Bradl might be unlikely to put the orange of Repsol Honda in the podium fight, but the LCR duo of Cal Crutchlow and Takaaki Nakagami should not be ruled out. Of course, it is worth noting that Crutchlow is still suffering with the scaphoid fracture he suffered in warm up for the Spanish Grand Prix, and that will likely hinder his performance this weekend as well. Nakagami, on the other hand, made a breakthrough in the Andalusian Grand Prix, topping both FP2 and FP4 and finishing fourth in the race. Nakagami put his improved form on the 2019 RC213V down to studying Marc Marquez’ data, so it will be interesting to see whether the #30 can carry that form into Brno which is traditionally a more difficult circuit for Honda, but where Marquez won last season. 

Suzuki took their first points of 2020 in the Andalusian Grand Prix, with Joan Mir finishing in fifth and Alex Rins carrying his damaged shoulder and humerus to a somewhat heroic 10th place. Rins will likely still be significantly prohibited by his injury this weekend, like Crutchlow, so it will be another case of damage limitation for the #42 as his championship challenge continues to wane. For Mir, though, there is an important opportunity for redemption. Brno ruined the #36’s rookie season when he crashed heavily in the post-race test last year. That crash left him out of action for a few races, and almost reset his first-year progress. It will be important for Mir to put any demons to bed early on this weekend, so expect him to perhaps put a particular effort into a time attack on Friday. 

KTM’s time in Jerez was mixed. Brad Binder showed speed in both the Spanish and Andalusian Grands Prix, but mistakes in both races prevented him from achieving the results that perhaps his speed warranted. Pol Espargaro, on the other hand, had differing fortunes in each race. The Spaniard finished sixth in the first race, less than seven seconds behind the winner, but one week later the gap more than doubled and the #44 was down in seventh. Nonetheless, the speed shown by the Austrian brand at rounds one and two was impressive, and something for them to build on for the upcoming races, starting in Brno. 

Contrarily, Aprilia suffered a lot in Jerez. Despite their impressive preseason performances, acceleration woes forced Aleix Espargaro to make the time lost on corner exit back on corner entry, which resulted in a few front end wash-outs, including one in each race. Based on that, Brno could go either way for the Noale brand, with the sweet handling of the RS-GP’s chassis helping it through the long corners and direction changes of the Czech track, but perhaps the mid-corner performance could be undone by poor acceleration which is also a prominent feature of the circuit. However, it is also true that there are not really any dead-stop corners in Brno, and if Espargaro can keep the RS-GP flowing, the acceleration issues could be troubleshot with momentum.