MotoGP Barcelona: Low grip track, high grip tyres

The MotoGP World Championship returns to action this weekend for the final race of this second triple header of the 2020 season, the Catalan Grand Prix in Barcelona. 

Historically, the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya has suited a variety of bikes, with Yamaha, Ducati and Honda all winning there in recent years, and Suzuki taking a qualifying 1-2 there back in 2015. This is because of the track’s diverse layout; with long corners, short corners, fast corners, slow corners, fast direction changes, hard braking and a long straight – this circuit tests almost everything in both the motorcycle and the rider, and it can be a tricky puzzle to figure out. 

Of course, that did not stop Ducati from making it the venue of their first MotoGP win back in 2003 in their first year of Grand Prix racing, but we often see in Barcelona a graphic depiction of the weak and strong points of each rider and bike out there. 

For example, Honda and Ducati – also probably KTM this year – will be fast in sector one, especially Honda and especially when Marc Marquez is riding. This is because sector one offers all the strong points of the Honda, and most of the strong points of the Ducati – top speed, hard braking, direction change. The first two work for Ducati, all three work for Honda. 

Sector two brings the likes of Yamaha and Suzuki back into play, with the long right-handers of turns three and four, although Ducati can make use of its strong front end into the downhill turn five. 

Sector three offers a similar mix, with the braking-on-angle in turn seven, the fastest corner on the track at turn nine and the hardest braking zone of the track in turn 10, which is also the tightest corner. Last weekend in World Superbike, we saw Michael van der Mark with a particularly extravagant style into turn 10, although that might not be the case in MotoGP this weekend, as the riders rely heavily on rear traction under braking to stop the bike. 

Turn 10 leads directly into turn 11, which is a bit of a nothing corner that leads straight into the never-ending turn 12. Keeping front contact on the exit of turn 12 is important, as there is a crest before turn 13 where the front can go light, and turn 13 is one of the biggest commitment corners of the season, immediately followed by another big commitment corner, turn 14, the final turn, where Valentino Rossi famously – or infamously, depending on your, the reader’s, allegiances – passed Jorge Lorenzo to win the 2009 Catalan Grand Prix. 

It’s that fourth sector where Yamaha should really come into its own, its superior grip on the edge of the tyre allowing it to carry more speed through the apex and carry the momentum through the final two turns. Indeed, it will need to carry momentum through turn 14, as what follows it its weakest point, the long straight. 

In comparison, Ducati is theoretically the opposite, losing time through the final two corners knowing it will make it back in the straight. The story is no doubt similar at Honda, where Marc Marquez is in attendance this weekend but not in a competitive capacity. On the positive side for Honda, they will have four bikes back out there on Friday, having been cut to two in Emilia Romagna last weekend, as Stefan Bradl and Cal Crutchlow return to action, Crutchlow in spite of ruptured ankle ligaments on Wednesday following a COVID test. 

In Ducati, they have not had the injury problems of Honda, but instead have struggled this season with too much rear grip. The mid-corner turning issues of the Ducati – that have been inherent in the Desmosedici since races were filmed in black and white and broadcast exclusively on a tape delay – mean that the riding style adopted by most of its riders required the rear tyre to be loose on corner entry, and to use the rotation at the rear like a pendulum. 

In Austria, Jack Miller used an exaggeration of this technique in turns two and three to get the bike rotated better through the middle of the hairpin, allowing him to open the throttle sooner. 

In 2020, this technique has been compromised by the new rear tyre casing, which is softer and offers more grip, meaning the rear tyre does not slide as much in braking, and when it does it is more aggressive in how it grips again. This has meant that for riders like Andrea Dovizioso, the season has been a struggle, highlighted by his lack of pace in Misano where he won in 2018. 

The situation with rear grip was exaggerated in Misano due to its extremely grippy new surface, and this presented problems also for Suzuki. Perhaps it is difficult to see where Suzuki’s issues lay when looking at the results – Joan Mir finished third and second in the two Misano races, respectively – but qualifying tells a different tale. When the grip was at its highest, with low fuel loads and a fresh soft rear tyre, the Suzuki couldn’t turn and although Mir was able to achieve two podiums in Misano, he had to do so with strong late race pace coming from the third row in San Marino and the fourth row in Emilia Romagna. Fundamentally, the issue is similar to that of a qualifying tyre in Superbike, where the extra grip at the rear overloads the front, and since Suzuki are so good at finding grip when the tyre is towards the end of its life, when the tyre has more grip inherently in it due to its freshness, it makes sense that the front struggles to cope and the rider struggles to make a strong lap time. With the condition of the surface in Misano, this issue was made worse and Mir’s chances of winning were over pretty much before he went to bed on Saturday night.

Barcelona could tell a different story, however, as the track has been rained on for much of the last week and reduced track action this year due to the pandemic means that, even after a WorldSBK round last weekend, the track should be quite ‘green’ – dirty, without rubber – this weekend. This could help the likes of Suzuki and Ducati, but for Yamaha it could be a disaster.

Yamaha were the only factory to not test in Misano before the San Marino Grand Prix and yet over both the first and second Misano races the YZR-M1 was the fastest bike – it took both pole positions and both victories. However, considering the grip issues traditionally faced by Yamaha in recent years it makes sense that they were strong in the place where the grip from the track surface was at its highest. Where grip was more average, like in Austria, they struggled more. 

Counter to all of this ‘theory’ is that in Brno, where grip was lower than at any other track on the calendar, the Yamahas of Franco Morbidelli and Valentino Rossi were competitive, the #21 finishing on the podium, whereas the Ducatis of Andrea Dovizioso, Jack Miller and Danilo Petrucci struggled. 

Winning that day in Brno when Yamaha were strong and Ducati were weak was, of course, Brad Binder on his KTM. The strong point of the RC16 seems to be, in particular, its traction on the shoulder of the tyre, which could prove vital this weekend with all of the corner exits in Barcelona where the riders have to spin the rear tyre to turn the bike, such as turns three, four, six, nine and 12. Being able to drive forward better than anyone else whilst using the rear to turn could be especially valuable in a potentially low-grip Barcelona, although it should not be forgotten that it was a lack of rear grip at the end of the race in Misano that almost cost Pol Espargaro his second podium of the season. 

So, who will win in Barcelona? Well, the low grip should help Suzuki, KTM and Ducati, but it should also not be discarded that Yamaha were on the podium in Montmelo last season when Fabio Quartararo finished second. The M1 suits the layout in Catalunya, and it has also won four races in 2020 with three different riders. Furthermore, the exception to the Ducati rule this year has been Francesco Bagnaia, who will be keen to redeem himself after throwing away his first win one week ago in Misano. 

In the lower categories, the major news coming into this weekend is that Jorge Martin is back in action this weekend after missing both Misano races due to testing positive for COVID-19. The Spaniard is 46 points down in the championship, so will have his work cut out to get back into the title fight, especially given the consistency of Luca Marini this year and the speed of Enea Bastianini. The Italian will look to go back-to-back for the second time in 2020 this weekend, at the circuit where he took his first GP podium back in 2014. Elsewhere in the Moto2 class, Xavi Vierge has re-signed with Petronas Sprinta Racing for 2021. This would indicate that the second Petronas seat in the intermediate class for next year is up for grabs between John McPhee and Jake Dixon. Both have been impressive recently, Dixon taking a career-best result in Emilia Romagna and McPhee winning in San Marino. 

Additionally, despite his sub-par result in Emilia Romagna, McPhee is still in the title hunt in Moto3, just 21 points down on Albert Arenas who will be looking to take victory this weekend in his home race. Between McPhee and Arenas in the championship is Ai Ogura, who was once again on the podium in Emilia Romagna but is still without a win in 2020, whilst Celestino Vietti brought himself back into championship with his second place last week in Misano, where he was beaten by Romano Fenati who will hope to use that win as a catalyst to return to regular top results.