F1 Talk: Will Mercedes really pull out of Formula One?

On 12 February a meeting will take place to decide whether Mercedes will withdraw or renew their contract with Formula One following the 2020 season.

Mercedes’ contract expires at the end of this year and should they decide to pull the plug, it would be a huge shock and cause seismic changes in the sport.

Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas do not have contracts for 2021 or beyond so their future is uncertain at this moment.

In September, McLaren announced they would use Mercedes engines next year reuniting the partnsership that has seen them win multiple championships and races in the late 1990s and 2000s.

Following this, rumours have been sparking about whether this was the first step to Mercedes leaving the sport. The chances of this happening are increasing as Mercedes’ success in Formula E and the parent comany Daimler looking to put further effort into their road car programme has ignited speculation.

F1 can ill afford to lose Mercedes even though Aston Martin are coming into the sport next year due to Lawrence Stroll buying a 16.7% stake in Aston Martin on Friday to replace the current Racing Point team.

Renault’s future is uncertain too so losing Mercedes and Renault would put F1 in a lot of trouble to Liberty Media will be doing everything they can to keep Mercedes on the grid.

Mercedes were never in F1 for the long haul.

The project has been incredibly successful, surpassing all expectations, and with the uncertainty of the new regulations coming in, 2020 would be a good time to leave while the investment has been worthwhile. If it is going to happen, it will happen after this sesaon.

This situation would be remarkably similar to VW leaving the FIA World Rally Championship in 2016 after they dominated the series for a few years.

No matter what you think of the Silver Arrows, losing a team like Mercedes will not be good for F1 and only if a team replaces them will this potentially be good news for F1.

Even though Toyota, Honda, Renault and BMW all suddenly left the sport when the recession hit in 2008-2009, for the reigning constructors’ and drivers champions who have created a new benchmark, broken record and done the double for six consecutive years will be unprecedented for F1.

The $175 million budget cap in 2021 will make it easier to sell the Mercedes team to a customer team, should it be needed.

Ultimately, Mercedes have nothing left to prove after six years of huge success and at some point the cost versus diminishing marketing returns over time.

It would be one of the biggest shocks in F1 history if Mercedes were to leave the sport and just think about the uproar in speculation as to what happens to Lewis Hamilton should Mercedes pull out.

The question is: Does Mercedes want to be a full-works team from 2021 or solely an engine supplier?