F1 Talk: What Daniel Ricciardo’s Surprise Move Means for 2019

A bombshell was dropped on Friday when Daniel Ricciardo was announced to leave Red Bull at the end of the season to join Renault. Nearly everyone thought he was going to stay with Red Bull but it just shows that you should expect the unexpected when it comes to F1 Silly Season.

The question is, why has Ricciardo left a team which will be getting a much improved Honda engine next year to effectively become a works team, to go to a team which arguably has the worst engine on the grid and is still years away from getting back to the top of the championship.

Renault are at least one second behind Red Bull, pace wise, and that will take a lot of time and development to catch up. There are changes for the front wings next season but that will not allow Renault to catch up because it’s not a significant aerodynamic change. Ricciardo is looking at 2021 when Formula 1 is expected to change massively with new engine regulations and further major aerodynamic changes. This will be Renault’s chance to catch up but there are no guarantees.

The 2021 rules have not been published and are still at least a month or so away from getting towards some clarity or direction as to where the sport is going. It’s not like a Lewis Hamilton move to Mercedes when he knew of how good the Mercedes car would be in the future.

But, it’s not a massive risk. Red Bull do not have the fastest car, whereas when Hamilton left McLaren, McLaren arguably did have the fastest car.

“It was probably one of the most difficult decisions to take in my career so far, but it was time for me to take on a fresh and new challenge”

Red Bull and Ricciardo must have come to conflict during contract negotiations. It’s why this has dragged on for longer than some thought. Ricciardo waited for Mercedes to confirm their two drivers for next year and then is likely to have started to negotiate with Red Bull but has not got what he wanted.

Driver status is something that’s not as big as a factor as it used to be 20 or 30 years ago. To me, Max Verstappen is Red Bull’s future and Ricciardo must not be happy that he would have had to play a number 2 role had he stayed. Due to the age and the hype that Verstappen has created, it’s hard for Red Bull not to favour the young Dutchman who is only 20-years-old.

Money must be another factor. Reports of McLaren offering up to £20 million for Ricciardo a couple of months ago may have made Ricciardo think about how much he is actually worth. It’s at least double what he is currently getting from Red Bull.

Renault probably offered a good chunk of money and contract guarantees which have lured the Australian into making this shock move as well as making Ricciardo think that the Honda engine in the back of the Red Bull and the Renault engine still has a lot to come. Good negotiating from Renault has got them what they wanted.

It does all make sense in a way. He will become a leads driver for a works team that has delivered in the past and has slowly but surely improved since their to the sport in 2016. We can speculate why he has done it and we can guess if it’s the right move or not. But I think we will only know by the end of the 2021 season.

Who will replace him? Pierre Gasly, Carlos Sainz, Esteban Ocon maybe even Fernando Alonso?

The first three are the most likely picks. Red Bull did loan Sainz out to Renault last year and they do have an option in him to join Red Bull but that expires in September. I don’t think it will be Sainz though.

The Spaniard lacks consistency and is unable to match his teammate Nico Hulkenberg on a regular basis. As I’ve said before, Hulkenberg is underrated. Also, Sainz and Verstappen weren’t exactly best friends when they were teammates at Toro Rosso in 2015 and the early part of 2016. A Sainz-Verstappen line-up would not be good for the harmony of the team and I can see Sainz being very unhappy if he isn’t given equal status.

Red Bull’s philosophy with drivers have been brutal over the last dozen years. Sainz hasn’t performed well enough to get the seat in my opinion. He hasn’t done much wrong but pure pace is what he seems to be lacking and you have to beat your teammate or at least match them to move to one of the top teams.

Esteban Ocon was nailed on as a Renault driver 2-3 weeks ago by some people. That cannot happen now and I’m pretty sure Red Bull can just buy him out of whatever links he has to Mercedes. Force India are in serious trouble right now and Ocon will want to get out of all of the mayhem that’s happening right now. He’s proven that he’s fast and he has the talent to win a championship.

The only problem I have with him not going to Red Bull as that himself and Verstappen clashed numerous times on and off the track in Formula 3 when they battled it out for the championship in 2014. Ocon actually beat Verstappen but there was hate between them.

A massive rivalry between them was already brewing four years ago and whilst they have both matured, tension could easily rise between both of them. It would be hard to control for Red Bull, especially if Ocon can beat Verstappen again. This line-up is what I want to see. It would be fantastic!

Gasly-Verstappen is the most likely line-up. Gasly is in his rookie year and has performed very well right from the off. Exceptional results in Bahrain, Monaco and last time out in Hungary has put him in contention to go from the smaller sister team to the big brother squad. To think that Gasly had to do a year in Super Formula before getting a chance in F1 after winning the GP2 championship, and the fast that it took him so long to get a win in GP2 shows how much the Frenchman has come on recently.

I think him and Verstappen would get on well and Gasly might not mind playing a number 2 role compared to Ocon and Sainz. He may not like it but I think he would understand it more.

Also if Verstappen has a say as to who is his teammate there’s no way he would want Sainz or Ocon which leaves Gasly as favourite to partner him next season. I would be a little surprised if this wasn’t the line-up.

And Alonso. Well, because he’s Fernando Alonso people think he could end up anywhere. Why not Red Bull? There’s a few reasons why not. Red Bull will have Honda engines next year and Honda will not want someone who gave them so much stick and so many “insults” at times in their car. It’s that simple. Verstappen will not want Alonso alongside him because if there’s someone on the grid who is as hungry and determined as him then it’s Fernando Alonso. He will not care what anyone else thinks.

Alonso also had a chance to go to Red Bull in 2015 anyway but they chose Daniil Kvyat which shows Red Bull’s position on Alonso. I just don’t see Alonso in one of the top teams as much as I’d love to see it happen. Ferrari will not put him alongside Vettel, Red Bull have already got Verstappen and Renault have clearly now said no. It’s not going to happen for him.

Ricciardo-Hulkenberg is a very strong line-up for 2019. Renault will have the drivers, they now just need the small matter of a championship winning car. I don’t see it happening next year though. For Ricciardo, Hulkenberg will be no pushover and to show how good he is, he needs to at least match “The Hulk” to prove to Ferrari and Mercedes that they should have had him and they should consider him again perhaps in 2021.

Will it turn out to be a move like Hamilton with Mercedes or will it turn into a nightmare like Alonso with McLaren? Time will tell but it’s a jaw dropping move and I’m happy that we will get some change towards the top. It was all getting a bit stale but Ricciardo has lit up this year’s Silly Season.

More on who I think will go where in the coming days. Stay tuned!