F1 Talk: Vettel’s last chance in the “Drive for Five”

A comfortable 40 point lead for Lewis Hamilton is an uncomfortable situation for championship rival Sebastian Vettel. Can Vettel still win the championship? It’s unlikely but this weekend really is his last chance to put the pressure on Mercedes and Hamilton. If he doesn’t win on Sunday, it will be about when Hamilton wins his 5th World Championship.

Vettel has overhauled significant points deficits in the past but none as big as this. There are six Grand Prix remaining (Russia, Japan, USA, Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi) so lets look at the two occasions at exactly the same stage as now where Vettel needed to play catch up and did so successfully.

In 2010, he was 31 points behind championship leader Lewis Hamilton and with some luck, won his maiden championship. It was the first time all season that he led the championship but it was the most important.

In 2012, the German was 29 points behind Fernando Alonso and excellent form in the final stages of the season gave him another a third consecutive title.

But, in both of those instances, Vettel had the best car; whereas now Mercedes and Ferrari are very equal. He also had some things go his way in 2010 and 2012. He may not get that this year. In fact, Vettel hasn’t had a mechanical DNF yet but Hamilton has (in Austria). Vettel’s only DNF was through a clear driver error at his home race in Hockenheim. I’m adamant that, that will be the key turning point of this season as a huge 32 point swing took place in just a few seconds.

If this season is telling us something, then it’s that we have no idea who will turn up and win the race on Sunday, and who has the fastest car. Ferrari were meant to be supremely strong in Monza and Singapore but they were beaten on both occasions. Even earlier this year, I remember talking about how Mercedes should be strong at places like China and Canada but Ferrari were able to match or better them on pace in both events.

I expect the Sochi Autodrom to produce a very close fight. It’s a strange circuit as the surface is very smooth, there’s lots of 90 degree corners and most of the turns are medium speed bends (very few high speed or slow turns). It means that the setup of the car is more important than the car’s strengths and weaknesses. You need to find a nice balance and make sure that you have no understeer.

The 5.848M circuit hasn’t created many classic moments or thrilling races since its inaugural race in 2014 but hopefully that will change this weekend. The run down to turn two is always very exciting in Sochi because starting on pole position isn’t necessarily the best thing to have. Turn one is nothing but a right hand kink so the first braking zone is turn two.

It’s a long run down to turn two so you can pick up a handy slipstream and take the lead or gain positions; similar to the run from La Source, through Eau Rouge, Raidillon and down the Kemmel Straight at Spa. Valtteri Bottas did this very thing last year to win his maiden F1 race as he started from 3rd on the grid to shoot by both Ferraris to take the lead and hold off Vettel at the end.

Bottas has always gone well around Sochi for some reason, even in his Williams days. The Finn needs a good result because he is getting beat and sometimes dominated by teammate, Lewis Hamilton. Since his contract extension was announced before summer, he has lacked speed. He started the season very well but is still yet to win a race in a car that is more than able to win races. Perhaps his contact extension came to early and had it not been signed, he would be more motivated than he is currently.

Daniel Ricciardo is another driver who has really struggled for form recently. Is it that he’s not on top form or is Max Verstappen already becoming a super fast driver? Probably a bit of both. If it wasn’t for Verstappen’s terrible first third of the season then I would rate him just as high as Hamilton at the moment but Ricciardo has lost a little bit of his stock since he won the Monaco Grand Prix really.

I remember when Ricciardo was said to be one of the best qualifiers on the grid 2-3 years ago but is losing 12-2 to Verstappen this season, which is quite poor. I don’t see him winning another race this season and I hope that his move to Renault works out because he probably wants this season to end as soon as possible.

Both Red Bull drivers will be taking grid penalties and starting at the back this weekend. The reason is because they don’t have enough engines to get to the end of the season without taking a penalty and Sochi is probably Red Bull’s worst track in the remaining six races so it makes sense to take it this weekend. With no wet weather around as well, it means less chance of a chaotic and unpredictable race so it’s just damage limitation for them and they are under no threat in either championship.

Max Verstappen added this as to why Red Bull are taking another engine:

“Our C-spec cannot run in high altitude in Mexico and Brazil, so we always knew since we took the C-spec on that we had to take another B at one point”

Toro Rosso and McLaren are set to take grid penalties as well. But the good news for Toro Rosso and Honda is that the upgrade that’s coming will be a big one. Up to 40BHP as well as improved reliability are the latest reports from the Honda camp which is promising news and if so, they could be soon on terms with Renault.

If it turns into a reality, it will make Red Bull’s decision to go to Honda look very wise and McLaren’s decision to drop Honda at the end of last season look even sillier. Like I said, McLaren themselves will be taking grid penalties because they know they will be weak at Sochi so don’t expect them to see too much of them.

The big news this week as that there will be an Italian F1 driver on the grid next season for the first time since 2011. Antonio Giovinazzi will drive alongside Kimi Raikkonen in 2019. A very exciting line-up!

Giovinazzi was arguably better than Pierre Gasly during the 2016 GP2 season and look at where Gasly is going next year. Giovinazzi’s nightmare Chinese Grand Prix weekend last year probably stalled his chances of getting a full-time F1 drive a little earlier. But he will finally get that chance and I’d much rather see someone get a proper chance than someone who’s had five years worth of chances and not performed well enough (i.e Marcus Ericsson).

It is a surprise to me that Ericsson is going because he has some Swedish backing but things must have changed and I can’t say that I’m hot happy to see Ericsson step aside. He’s had his chance and hasn’t shown anything outstanding. The Swede will be staying with Sauber as their reserve driver but it could be the end of his F1 career.

Other news that I expect to come out during the weekend is the return of Daniil Kvyat to Toro Rosso. Who would have thought that at the start of this year? The guy that was demoted twice looks like he will be back for another F1 season. Crazy! Personally, I would prefer someone who hasn’t drove in F1 yet because Kvyat has had his chance. If you’re good, then you should be able to deliver almost immediately and Kvyat didn’t do enough in my opinion.

He had good speed but made far too many errors; a bit like Romain Grosjean. You may think that I’m being highly critical but I just want to see the best grid of drivers possible so if Helmut Marko can get his hands on Esteban Ocon or George Russell then that would be superb. If he can’t get those Mercedes associated drivers, then why not someone like Alexander Albon who could finish third in this year’s F2 championship. The Kvyat return just doesn’t feel right to me. I hope he can prove me wrong though and perform at a higher level than his last F1 spell.

And so back to the on track action. Hamilton hasn’t won three races on the trot this year but that could all change if he wins this weekend. Mercedes have won every single F1 race in Sochi since it’s introduction in 2014 but for the championship’s sake I would like to see Ferrari win so the “Drive for Five” can continue all the way to Abu Dhabi in November.