F1 Talk: Predicting the 2019 driver line-up

After Daniel Ricciardo’s shock move to Renault, Fernando Alonso moving away from F1 to focus on the World Endurance Championship and perhaps Indycar and a consortium that includes Lawrence Stroll buying Force India, the F1 driver market has been blown wide open.

Only six drivers are confirmed for 2019 whilst everyone else on the grid is playing musical chairs or just trying to stay in the sport itself. It’s the most unresolved grid for quite a long time and a lot of it is just guess work.

I’ll try and have a go at who I think will be where. I will probably be wrong and if you have any thoughts leave them in the comments, but it just shows how much uncertainty there is at the moment.

The order is reflective of the current constructor standings

Mercedes

Lewis Hamilton – Valtteri Bottas

Mercedes confirmed prior to the German GP weekend that their driver line-up will remain unchanged.

Lewis Hamilton signed a two year deal to stay in the Mercedes family although some people thought he would go to Ferrari. It was never going to happen though. Hamilton was probably just stalling his contract to get a bit more cash in his wallet. It would have been silly for Mercedes to get rid of the 4-time world champion and they would probably have paid anything to keep him.

Valtteri Bottas was given another one year deal just 24 hours after Hamilton’s contract was confirmed. There was a lot of talk about him losing his seat but Bottas has performed well enough and has just been a little unlucky to not take a win so far. He does have an option to stay with Mercedes for 2020 as well but he will need to find another level just like he’s done this year.

Ferrari

Sebastian Vettel – Kimi Raikkonen

After the sad death of Sergio Marchionne a few weeks ago, I think Ferrari needs stability more than anything right now which is why I believe their driver line-up will stay the same.

Sebastian Vettel signed a new deal to stay with Ferrari during last year’s Belgian Grand Prix. He was the first driver to sign with a team until 2020. I think it shows how much he wants to emulate Michael Schumacher by winning a championship with the Italian team and giving them some much needed success. The big question is who will partner him?

It will be either Charles Leclerc or Kimi Raikkonen. A couple of months ago it looked like Leclerc was going to make a swift move to Ferrari but I don’t think Vettel wants him there. A young, determined teammate who could beat Vettel will damage the German’s reputation significantly. I’ve said it before that I want to see Vettel being pushed much harder than he currently is and I think Leclerc will provide that challenge.

Raikkonen’s weaknesses are getting the most out of the car when it really matters at the pointy end of qualifying and the first lap of a race. These are the two most important times of a Grand Prix weekend and Raikkonen is performing badly in those areas. But, Ferrari being Ferrari will probably mean that they want a number 1 and 2 driver and Raikkonen doesn’t mind as much as other drivers playing that role and I don’t see Raikkonen retiring by himself.

Leclerc will have to wait at least one more year to drive in red.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen – Pierre Gasly

Before last year’s Malaysian Grand Prix, Max Verstappen extended his contract by one year to 2020. Money but also loyalty are likely to be the main factors for that extension. But, if Red Bull don’t perform next year then I won’t be surprised if there are some performance release clauses within that deal. For next year though, Verstappen will start his 5th year in F1 with Red Bull.

I’ve already talked about Daniel Ricciardo’s likely replacements in an article here but I’ll give a brief overview of who is going to replace him. Pierre Gasly, Carlos Sainz and Esteban Ocon were Red Bull’s main options. If Ocon is free then I would rate him more highly than Gasly or Sainz. The only problem Red Bull may find is that Ocon and Verstappen hated each other when they battled it out for the Formula 3 Championship in 2014.

Red Bull are brutal when it comes to drivers and they like to promote young drivers who have potential very quickly, something Gasly has. Sainz had lost some of his value this year (before his announcement to move to McLaren) whereas Gasly’s stock is increasing.

Renault

Daniel Ricciardo – Nico Hulkenberg

We all know that Daniel Ricciardo will drive for Renault next year after his shock announcement that he will leave Red Bull. If you look at what Christian Horner said last week then you can see why Ricciardo wanted out because it looks as if he was going to play the number two role, when Horner was asked about Mark Webber’s and Sebastian Vettel’s rivalry.

“It was potentially where Ricciardo-Verstappen could have ended up over the next couple of years”

Now, Ricciardo should be the main man at Renault. He’s signed until 2020 to put him in line with Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen. Nobody is signed beyond 2020 because the season after that will be a season of change for Formula 1 as engine and aero rules change are expected to change massively.

Every team will be persuading drivers to stay or join their team, just like Mercedes did with Lewis Hamilton in 2012. Meanwhile Nico Hulkenberg was confirmed, on the same day as Ricciardo’s announcement, to drive with Renault for a 3rd year.

Haas

Kevin Magnussen – Sergio Perez

From here onwards, I could be very wrong.

Kevin Magnussen has performed very well this year and the Haas is arguably best of the rest at most tracks so I expect Haas and Magnussen to give each other an easy time when they make a contract decision.

Romain Grosjean has not shown enough consistency in terms of qualifying and race pace for me to deserve a seat in F1. It’s Haas or nothing for him.

If Grosjean is out, I think Perez will be in. He’s done enough to go to what is now a pretty good seat to have and he will bring a lot of money and sponsors to the Haas team. This would be a strong partnership for Haas and I think Perez will be out of Force India even though he helped the team massively to get into the great situation they’re in now.

Force India

Lance Stroll – George Russell

Whatever Force India is called next year I’ll be very surprised if Lance Stroll isn’t in the car. Lawrence Stroll’s part in buying the team has almost put his son in the car already and it may even happen this season. For 2019 though, the Canadian will get a chance to prove his worth in what should be a much better car.

Another bold choice I’ve made is to put the current Formula 2 championship leader with Force India. George Russell is a Mercedes junior driver and if goes on to win the title then I think he will be rewarded with a drive in F1. He’s performed very well this year against a highly rated Lando Norris and with money pumped into Force India, Russell should be able to get a drive with them purely on performance.

McLaren

Lando Norris – Carlos Sainz

It will be the first time McLaren will be without a F1 World Champion since 2008 (until Hamilton went on to win it that year) after Fernando Alonso announced he will not drive with the team in 2019 on Tuesday.

Yesterday, Sainz announced he’ll take one of the seats. A Spaniard replacing a Spaniard. I didn’t see him at Toro Rosso anyway because it would be basically starting his F1 career again. It’s a risk but he needs to go somewhere because he deserves a seat on the grid.

I think Stoffel Vandoorne may suffer the same fate is Romain Grosjean. He has been up against one of the greatest F1 drivers of this century but I think he’s been too far behind and far too often as well. The Belgian hasn’t shown the potential he showed in GP2 which is a shame but it just shows the high level of the F1 grid.

I also think McLaren need to put Lando Norris in their car because they have brought him up from a young age and it would be silly if they were to lose him to a rival team after bringing him up for the last few years. It would be a bit of a waste. Sources say his contract with McLaren expires at the end of October so pen will need to be put to paper very soon.

Toro Rosso

Brendon Hartley – Sergio Sette Camara

Brendon Hartley hasn’t had a good F1 career so far but I think he will be saved by the lack of Red Bull young drivers who will be able to get into F1 next season.

Dan Ticktum is a young British driver in Formula 3 who Red Bull want to put into F1 as soon as possible but even if he wins that championship, he won’t have the 40 super licence points which makes him ineligible to be in F1 in 2019. Ticktum got a 2 year motorsport ban after he overtook 10 cars during a safety-car period and deliberately crashed into Ricky Collard.

This means F2 driver Sergio Sette Camara could get an F1 chance if he gets onto the top 3 of the championship this season. He’s currently 7th and 35 points behind 3rd place which is a tough ask. If he can do it then I think Red Bull will put him at Toro Rosso and use Hartley as a benchmark. If it’s not Camara I really don’t know who will drive alongside Hartley.

Sauber

Marcus Ericsson – Charles Leclerc

A line-up that will remain unchanged for me. It means Sauber can keep on progressing up the midfield with driver stability. Some think Leclerc will go to Haas or even Ferrari but Sauber Team Principle Fred Vasseur does love Leclerc and Sauber could be better than Haas anyway next year.

As for Ericsson, I think he will be staying because he still has some Swedish backing and those Swedes have some shares in the team.

Williams

Esteban Ocon – Sergey Sirotkin

We all know Williams are struggling financially which is why I think Sirotkin will stay as he brings a lot of money to the team and it leaves Esteban Ocon at Williams which is unfortunate really because he deserves better than that. His Mercedes ties are also more likely to put him there as well.

So, that’s what I think. It might be mad to some of you but anything could happen over the next few months!