F1 Talk: Can Mercedes clinch a 5th Championship in a row this Weekend?

With the drivers’ championship wrapped up, focus now turns onto the constructors’ championship ahead of this weekend’s Brazilian Grand Prix.

For Mercedes to win a 5th consecutive constructors’ title in Brazil, they need to be 43 points or more ahead of Ferrari by the end of Sunday. In other words, Ferrari must outscore Mercedes by 13 points to take the fight to the season finale in Abu Dhabi.

Ferrari have outscored Mercedes in the last two races by 12 and 11 points in USA and Mexico respectively but face an even tougher challenge in Sao Paulo.

It really should have been Ferrari leading the constructors’ championship or at the very least just a handful of points behind Mercedes because Valtteri Bottas has been quite poor in the second half of the season and the Ferrari car has been capable of winning both championships this season. Instead, Ferrari will be kicking themselves over the winter. Just like Alex Cormack discussed this week, Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel can only blame themselves for not winning either championship (that’s the likelihood).

The track they will do battle on has become a historic and popular circuit amongst F1 fans. The 2.6 mile Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace, or as most people call it, Interlagos is a tricky track with lots of elevation and three unique sectors.

Sector one is effectively just the “Senna’s S” and “Curva do Sol” – turns one, two and three. Turn one provides the best overtaking opportunity since there is a long full throttle section beforehand. The grip is very good on the inside of the corner as well so you can send one down the inside, knowing that the radius of the corner and the track surface will help you make the corner.

Sector two has a double fast right hander which will be taken at over 140MPH. Think about that for a second. You’re doing double the speed that you can do on a motorway (legally) whilst turning through a right hander which is partially blind. It’s just incredible speeds.

Then comes three very slow speed corners which is all about traction followed by a downhill run into Juncao which is the final “proper corner”. The scene where Lewis Hamilton overtook Timo Glock on the final lap of the race to win his maiden championship and break the hearts of the Brazilian people, Ferrari fans and Felipe Massa in 2008.

It’s all uphill from there and it’s just 100% throttle where you rely on the engine to push you up the hill back to the start/finish line. Expect Ferrari to be very strong in the final sector since they have the best engine and should be able to gain lots of time on Mercedes and Red Bull in that sector alone.

Lewis Hamilton won the championship last time out in Mexico but rather strangely, he has never won a race after he has become champion in the same season. In 2015, he won the championship in USA but Nico Rosberg went on to win the final three races which arguably gave him momentum going into the 2016 season as he won the opening four races in that season.

Last year, Hamilton won the championship in Mexico but uncharacteristically crashed out in the first part of qualifying which handed Sebastian Vettel the win as Hamilton recovered to 4th place. In the finale last year, it was teammate, Bottas, who stole the show by taking pole position and the win. Hamilton will be looking to change things by winning this weekend.

But, he has only won in Sao Paulo once. That was in 2016 in those seriously wet conditions when Max Verstappen shined as Hamilton mastered the wet conditions by dominating the race. The weather in Sao Paulo is usually quite wet and rain is expected during Saturday and/or Sunday so if Mercedes don’t have the fastest car, the weather may save them as rain plays into Hamilton’s hands.

Red Bull will be looking to get into the mix after a stunning weekend in Mexico City last time out. The altitude really helped them as the less powerful engines lost less performance compared to the better engines. Sao Paulo is over 700M above sea level so the altitude will help again but it’s nothing compared to the 2285M in Mexico.

Daniel Ricciardo will be looking to end his nightmare run of results which he has suffered in the recent past. The Australian has had 8 DNFs this year and has NOT been on the podium since he won the Monaco Grand Prix in May. Compared that to teammate, Verstappen, well… he had had 8 podiums since Monaco. It’s a complete contrast to Ricciardo.

Will Ricciardo’s luck change before the end of the season? Or will his Red Bull career end on a low?

Constructors’ Championship Standings

1. Mercedes     585
2. Ferrari          530
3. Red Bull       362
4. Renault        114
5. Haas             84
6. McLaren       62
7. Force India   47
8. Sauber         36
9. Toro Rosso   33
10. Williams        7

As I’ve talked about above there is still a fight to see who will win the team’s championship. But there’s also a fight for the minor places. Remember, there are millions of pounds at stake and for the midfield teams, it is crucial to finish as high up as possible so you can have more money to develop the car next season.

The results they get this year, can have an impact on next year.

Renault look like they will take 4th place with Haas in 5th. McLaren will be under threat from Force India since the latter arguably have the best car outside the top three teams and should be able to collect a good amount of points in Brazil and Abu Dhabi. McLaren may struggle so it will be interesting to see if the “Pink Panthers” despite having to reset the points they had from Belgium onwards – they were in administration during the summer and lost all of the team points they gained in the first 12 races.

Sauber and Toro Rosso will be in a fight for 8th but I think for Toro Rosso, they are just testing the Honda engine for themselves and Red Bull in 2019 so they won’t care too much.

But, Brazil can throw a curveball and some crazy conditions on Sunday may give a few shock results which can change the look of the constructors’ championship. It will be a challenging weekend for everyone and even though the drivers’ championship is done and dusted, I am still looking forward to the Grand Prix.

Off track, it was announced that Vietnam will host a Grand Prix in April 2020. It will be a street circuit in the capital city of Hanoi. The layout actually looks quite good and it features a straight that is 1.5KM long, perhaps some inspiration from the Baku track which everyone seems to love.

There will be 22 turns on a 5.56KM layout which looks like it will provide a challenge with a sequence if high speed corners like Maggots and Becketts at Silverstone or The Esses at Suzuka. There are two parts of the track which have go around a roundabout which is a first for an F1 track so hopefully the track will give us some exciting races like Azerbaijan has given us. Liberty Media just need to be a bit careful of not having too many street circuits and not making every track like Baku.

No Brazilian driver will take part in the Brazilian Grand Prix for the first ever time. Hopefully the 20 drivers competing this weekend will put on a show as the 2018 F1 season comes close to its end.