F1 Season Preview 2019: Will the Hamilton and Mercedes reign end?

We are just days away from seeing the cars out on track in Albert Park, Melbourne as the 70th FIA Formula One Season is about to get underway.

Lewis Hamilton is the defending drivers’ champion looks for a 6th world title and Mercedes seek a 6th consecutive constructors’ championship which would equal Ferrari’s record.

But, it will not come easy. Both Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen are both eligible to overtake Sebastian Vettel and become the youngest ever champion, both will be hungry to make a little bit of history. They have two years to pull it off and there is no reason to say they can’t do it this year.

The Calendar

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China has the honour of hosting F1’s 1000th Grand Prix so expect a few off-track activities that commemorate that event and an extra bit of hype and anticipation in the build up to the Chinese Grand Prix.First of all, this is where the F1 circus will over the next nine months with no new rounds and just a few minor changes to the calendar. There is no triple header, which we had in 2018, and the season will end in December for the first time since 1963.

The Drivers

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Only two teams have kept the same driver line-up from 2018 (Haas and Mercedes) whilst the other teams have had to get used to new drivers joining or returning to their squad. I am sure you all know the changes that have happened and the most intriguing line-up on the grid has to be the Ferrari partnership of Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc – I looked at this two weeks ago in detail – F1 Talk: How will Leclerc fare against Vettel? It is a massive year for Vettel as he looks to bounce back after a poor 2018.

It is also a big year for Red Bull as they get a new engine manufacturer in the back of their car in Honda. The signs from testing are good but they are still not on Ferrari’s or Mercedes level in terms of pure power. If Red Bull can get a car onto the second row and genuinely challenge for the podium in Melbourne, they can mount a championship challenge. More on the Red Bull-Honda partnership here – F1 Talk: Honda’s Make or Break Season with Red Bull.

Technical Changes

In a bid to improve overtaking and the racing, front wing endplates were reshaped to alter the airflow across the car and reduce the effects of aerodynamic turbulence. The DRS rear wing has been widened which will make DRS more powerful. Here are the specifics:

• The front wing starts at 1225mm ahead of the front wheel centre line instead of 1200mm, therefore longer
• The front wing is located between 75 and 300mm above the reference plane
• The total width of the front wing increases by 100mm (currently 1800mm)
• The front wing is limited to 5 elements which cannot be placed on top of each other
• No slots or winglets in/at the endplates allowed
• Blown front axles are banned
• No winglets or turning vanes to be placed at the front brake ducts
• The rear wing can be 20mm higher and 100mm wider
• No bodywork between 175 and 450mm above the reference plane in the area around the rear wheels and behind

Will this make much of a difference? Hopefully, but I do not think we will see much of an effect this weekend in Albert Park as it is probably the 4th or 5th worst track to overtake on so inevitably there will be an outcry of “how little overtaking there was in the race” but then F1 will go to Bahrain and China where the racing is very good and then people will complain “that overtaking is too easy.” You just cannot win with some F1 fans.

My view is that there will be a slight improvement and even if there isn’t, its much better than going the other way and making overtaking even harder which is what would have happened if the front and rear wings were not simplified. The ultimate goal is 2021 which we eagerly await as to how much of an overhaul there will be on the regulation side.

Other Rule Changes

• To reduce the disadvantage faced by heavier drivers, a minimum weight of 80KG for the driver and their seat has been put into place
• Maximum permitted fuel weight has been increased to 110KG (although I expect most teams will never fill their fuel tank to 110KG anyway, a few kilograms less most likely)
• Overtaking after a safety car period is now only allowed when you have passed the start/finish line (‘no more safety car lines’)
• Drivers sent to the back of the grid after penalties will line up in the order in which they qualified to encourage drivers to not sit out qualifying sessions

Those Pesky Pirelli Tyres

Pirelli are still the tyre supplier of F1 in 2019 and it looks like the same problems as last year remain. Expect one stop races at most Grand Prix because the tyres are very hard, yet don’t expect the drivers to be pushing hard because the operating window is narrower than one of the hairs on your head. Lewis Hamilton said last week that he does “not have a lot of good so say about the tyres.” I talk a lot about tyres in this article and as you can tell, I am not a fan of these tyres and the promises Pirelli have made which have not happened at all. The racing is not as good partly due to the tyres – Opinion: How winning an F1 race has become easier.

Pirelli now only have five dry tyre compounds ranging from C1 to C5 with C1 being the hardest and C5 being the softest. Three of these compounds will be selected for each Grand Prix and will be labelled hard medium and soft, no more superduperultra soft compounds.

A Point for Fastest Lap

It was confirmed on Monday that one point would be awarded to the driver who sets the fastest lap of the race, providing they finish in the Top 10. If someone outside the Top 10 sets the fastest lap, no point is given. Many fans are not happy with this, calling it “terrible” or “stupid.” Its like some people are scared of change. Give it a chance. I do not see how it can make things worse and other series including Formula E, Formula 2, IndyCar, BTCC and more award points for a fastest lap so why can’t Formula 1?

Rather than the top six cars just coasting to the finish line, whoever is in 6th can come into the pits (if they have a big gap behind them) to put on a new set of tyres and try and set the fastest lap of the Grand Prix. Its much better than a boring finish, it at least gives us something to watch out for. Also, say the leader has a pitstop’s gap or more to 2nd place and they decide to pit for new tyres to get the fastest lap, something could go wrong at the pitstop unexpectedly which would be pretty dramatic and at the moment the lead changes.

Naturally, a point for pole position should be awarded too in my opinion but a point for fastest lap does no harm.

The Arms Race

With the teams already undoing the 1-2 second time loss which was meant to happen with these new front wings, it is clear that over the next seven months, there will be a huge arms race through the field. Gaining a tenth or two every weekend will be needed to stay ahead of your rivals and every upgrade will need to work.

Look at how Mercedes had the upper hand early on last year but then Ferrari had the benchmark car in the middle of the season before the Silver Arrows found more time in the latter part of the year. Time deficits and the pecking order will change race by race.

If Ferrari (for example) dominate this weekend in Australia, do not be too alarmed, only panic if they utterly dominate and do so again in Bahrain. Albert Park itself is an unusual track, Hamilton took pole position by 0.7 last year before Vettel went onto win the race (albeit with a bit of luck) and then the German won again in Bahrain.

The Final Words

It should be another great season and having not had a championship going down to the wire in the last two seasons, F1 is craving for a head to head battle all year long whether its Vettel vs. Hamilton or if Leclerc or Verstappen can get involved too.

I do not see Mercedes domination and I truly believe that 2019 is the year that the reign of Mercedes taking title after title ends. They will not go down without a fight but its just been too long since Ferrari last won a championship. I hope we get lots of close, wheel to wheel action at the front and some drama would be great for the sport too.

Either way the anticipation is high and the waiting will be over in just a few days time; F1 in 2019 is go!