F1 Preview: Typhoon on its way to Suzuka?

Formula One returns to Asia for its annual appearance in Japan and the classic Suzuka circuit. The drivers and fans love the challenge of Suzuka.

Steeped in history, with many magical moments over the years and championships decided – Suzuka has seen it all. Tragedy and triumph, there are very few places like Suzuka.

Iconic corners such as: The Esses, The Degners, Spoon Curve and 130R coupled with huge elevation changes and high speeds makes the circuit arguably the best of the year.

Going through turns at over 150MPH, just millimetres away from a big accident or putting a wheel onto the grass or gravel is what makes Suzuka such a challenge.

So many racetracks have been ruined or lost their edge with the removal of grass and gravel and the addition of tarmac run-off. For the most part, Suzuka has kept it’s old-school challenge meaning that mistakes are punished.

The difference between the great and the good and those who thrive under the pressure is always on show at this legendary circuit.

Whilst recent races have not been classics, the track is adored by everyone and is well and truly a staple of the F1 calendar.

Lewis Hamilton leads the way with a 73 point lead over Valtteri Bottas with Mercedes heading towards a sixth consecutive constructors’ title.

In fact, the Silver Arrows can win the constructors’ championship on Sunday if they outscore Ferrari by 12 points or more. There are many scenarios that could potentially play out, which gets even more complicated with a point for the fastest lap.

Essentially, a Mercedes 1-2 will see them win the constructors’ title in Japan but a Ferrari win would mean Mercedes cannot win the title this weekend.

What are the chances of a Mercedes 1-2? Well, it happened last time out in Russia (albeit with a bit of luck) but before that Mercedes eased to a 1-2 at Silverstone which has similar characteristics to Suzuka in some ways.

Things have changed since then with Ferrari finally unlocking the potential of the car in the last two Grand Prix especially. The first half of the lap should suit Mercedes with the second half suiting Ferrari.

After the turn 11 hairpin, Ferrari’s straight line speed advantage can be used at its fullest with a long run to Spoon and then another long run up the hill towards the flatout 130R before braking into the final chicane.

Ferrari were less than a tenth away from pole position at Silverstone with Charles Leclerc so the Monegasque driver should be favourite on Saturday. But, Sebastian Vettel has been very good at Suzuka and should not be discounted.

Remarkably, Ferrari have not won the Japanese GP since 2004.

Over one lap, Ferrari are favourites but Mercedes have a slightly better chance of taking pole position this weekend compared to Sochi two weeks ago. The drivers will make the crucial difference.

How much do they dare risk? Can they drive the car on the limit over 3.6 miles? On a drivers’ circuit, Suzuka qualifying shows why the top drivers get paid the big bucks.

Red Bull and more specifically Honda will be desparate for a strong showing. One Honda powered car on the podium is the minimum as they have taken grid penalties and even sacrificed races just for this weekend.

There is no doubt Red Bull turned the power unit down in Russia and Singapore to save all the ‘goodness’ for Honda’s home race so we will see their true performance.

A new fuel should add to the performance and don’t forget that Red Bull have given Mercedes headaches at Suzuka in the turbo-hybrid era. It’s another new track for Alexander Albon so he is being thrown in the deep end and will look for better outright speed throughout the weekend.

Honda have even elected reigning Super Formula and Super GT champion Naoki Yamamoto to race Gasly’s Toro Rosso on Friday practice, giving the fans a home hero to support. At 31, the Honda driver is unlikely to be signed up for 2020, but with Honda’s ever present role at Red Bull, a Japanese driver may become a necessity for Toro Rosso in the future.

McLaren should be very good this weekend too with their high-downforce package which I expect to see them well clear ahead of the rest of the field.

Toro Rosso stunned last year in qualifying at Suzuka with a 6th and 7th and could well be McLaren’s biggest challengers in the midfield battle. Pierre Gasly is looking good again and so far has had the better of Daniil Kvyat.

All these predictions could go out of the window though as the weather will almost certainly play its part this weekend.

As of writing, a super typhoon is heading towards Japan and is expected to make landfall between Suzuka and Tokyo on Saturday.

Current gusts are above 180MPH but it will obvioulsy weaken as it hits Japan. So far, Saturday looks like the most affected day with gusts of 70MPH and 100MM of rain expected.

Should the forecast be correct, qualifying will almost certainly have to take place on Sunday morning. If on Friday night, things still look bad the FIA and track organisers should take the decision to not have any track action on Saturday mainly for the fans sake and for safety too.

There is no point trying to find a one-hour window to fit qualifying in, only for conditions to not improve and waste everyone’s time (Moto GP Silverstone 2018 for example).

This does mean is that the teams’ will likely take Friday practice very seriously with the results of FP2 possibly forming the grid if qualifying cannot take place at all. For once, practice will matter.

Sunday looks dry so far but typhoons are very difficult to read and can arrive 12 hours later or earlier than expected.

With the tragic death of Jules Bianchi five years ago, the FIA will be even more conservative than usual which is understandable. Suzuka in the wet is the ultimate challenge for an F1 driver and is there to bite you if things go wrong.

Lets hope is not as bad as expected and the racing can give us a Suzuka showdown.