F1 Preview: Mercedes look to Respond in Russia

Remarkably, Mercedes have gone three Grand Prix without a race win. This is only the second time it has happened to the Silver Arrows in the turbo-hybrid era.

It’s not like they have been off the pace, they have still had the best car in race trim but have just missed out by the finest of margins.

In Belgium, Lewis Hamilton needed just a few more laps to possible find a way past Charles Leclerc as he was catching him at a rate of knots. In Italy, Leclerc was very robust and arguably lucky to get away with his over the limit defending on Hamilton.

And in Singapore, Mercedes got the strategy wrong and did not even make it onto the podium in a race which was decided in a vital 6-7 lap period when the leaders pitted.

Even in qualifying, it was expected that Ferrari would be unbeatable at Spa and Monza, but this weekend there are no excuses for Mercedes and should they not win, it would be the first time they have gone winless over four or more races for the first time since 2013.

Ferrari’s sudden and astonishing form in Singapore might make them favourites in Sochi as they have proven that the car can handle low and medium speed corners.

Tyre temperatures and getting the tyres into the perfect operating window was key to Ferrari’s Singapore success. Of course, it was not all down to the tyres but Singapore is notoriously difficult for getting everything together and optimising laptime.

The SF90 seemed to ride the kerbs very well, with the front end of the car rotating beautifully mid-corner. Ferrari will be hoping Singapore was not just a one-off.

Sochi is one of (if not the) smoothest track of the season which may swing the pendulum back towards Mercedes. Valtteri Bottas has been very good in Russia in the past and been able to take the fight to Hamilton.

It’s the track where Bottas won his first race in 2017 as he held off Sebastian Vettel in the final laps and he could have won last year had he not been told to let Hamilton through at turn 13.

Many people forget that Bottas was a little lucky with the undercut, a bit like Vettel at Singapore on Sunday, so was fortunate to be leading the race at the point. Nevertheless, you have to put yourself in that position to capitalise on opportunities and Bottas did exactly that only for it to be taken away.

Something that might make Hamilton the firm favourite for this weekend is the weather. As of writing, rain is forecast for most of Saturday with a chance of rain on Sunday too. Hamilton is still the benchmark in the rain.

Yes, he made mistakes in Germany but he still eased away from the field in the early stages of the Grand Prix and his wet-weather record is outstanding. Race pace is still what sets Hamilton and Bottas apart.

Bottas is an excellent qualifier but his race pace compared to Hamilton is generally slower. Due to the smooth tarmac in Sochi, if there is rain it will be extremely slippery.

Luckily, there is plenty of run-off which I hate so any mistakes may not be punished fully. In my opinion, Sochi is one of the worst tracks on the F1 calendar. The constant 90 degree bends, the lack of undulation, the lack of atmosphere makes it pretty dull.

F1 has had five races in Russia now and none of them have been classics. The track layout is not good for racing but even in qualifying it does not feel as exciting compared to other races because the track is not as challenging.

At least Singapore and Monaco qualifying is exciting to watch, even though the races might not see lots of wheel to wheel action.

The two long straight down towards turn two and turn 14 will allow Ferrari to gain time over their rivals over the course of the lap. Even some of the short straights in between the corners plays into Ferrari’s strengths too.

If it’s dry I expect Sebastian Vettel or Leclerc to win and as long as they can be 1-2 after the long run down to the first braking zone on the opening lap, Ferrari should be able to control they race as they have in the last few weeks.

Red Bull might be taking another new power unit to get ready for Suzuka (which follows Russia) to get ready for something special in front of the Japanese crowd and more importantly in front of the Honda personnel.

Nothing is confirmed yet but Max Verstappen started from the back last year and came through the field very strongly with pace that was equally as good as the leaders.

Singapore was not a good weekend for Red Bull with expectations high but an underwhelming performance. Alexander Albon might be happy to be able to run with the leaders (albeit they were coasting) but apart from a crash in practice he kept the car clean at the right time and stayed out of trouble.

Albon won the Formula Two Feature Race last year in Sochi so has good form in Russia. The Thai driver is doing a decent job but with Pierre Gasly impressing (again) at Toro Rosso it makes Red Bull’s decision for 2020, as to who should partner Verstappen, very difficult because Albon did not exactly obilterate Daniil Kvyat when he was at Toro Rosso.

Don’t expect fireworks this weekend but it will be fascinating to see whether Ferrari can continue their run of form and make if four victories on the trot for the first time since 2008. It’s going to be tough though and they definitely will not cruise away from the Silver Arrows.

Mercedes have won every single Russian Grand Prix, can they carry on the Russian streak?