F1 Preview: Engine Upgrades and Ferrari Favourites at Spa

Formula One is back from its four week hiatus, and as always, it’s the Belgium Grand Prix which restarts the season.

Lewis Hamilton has a comfortable margin over the rest of the field with a 62 point lead over teammate Valtteri Bottas and a 68 point gap to Max Verstappen. Just nine races remain and Hamilton typically gets stronger and becomes even tougher to beat in the second half of the season.

Ferrari are still yet to win a race, staggering after they looked so good in pre-season testing. A massive opportunity was missed early on in Bahrain which not only was hard to swallow but a huge dent to any momentum and confidence that would have been gained – something that is essential in any sport.

But, Ferrari did not pick themselves up well with further pivotal errors by Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc in Azerbaijan, Canada, Britain and Germany whilst the team have made a few mistakes on the pitwall. For instance, they suffered a nightmare during Germany in qualifying when both cars hit reliability problems.

Whenever they have the pace to win, the driver or the team make a mistake. Whenever they don’t have the pace to win, they can execute a solid weekend and maximise points just like they did last time out in Hungary.

This weekend marks 12 months since Vettel last won a race in F1. Should the 4-time world champion fail to win on Sunday, it will equal his longest streak without a victory (matching the 21 races it took for him to win his maiden race at Monza in 2008 with Toro Rosso).

On paper, Spa and Monza should be fantastic opportunities for Ferrari. They are still the bench mark in a straight line with a great power unit and an aerodynamic package which favours top end speed over downforce.

Similarly to Silverstone, Spa-Francorchamps has become more and more of a power circuit in recent times with Eau Rouge and Blanchimont easily flat out and the double right hander of Pouhon now able to be taken at 100% throttle too.

The drivers will be on the throttle for a very long time with probably three-quarters of the lap taken at full throttle. I expect a Ferrari to be on pole position purely due to the track layout and the track characteristics.

Sunday will be a different story though as Mercedes and Red Bull appear to be significantly better than Ferrari in race trim. If Ferrari can lock out the front row though, they can control the race and give themselves a really good chance of taking their first win of 2019.

Their straight line speed will make them hard to overtake, although Spa is one of the easier (if not the easiest) track to overtake on out of the 21 races on the current calendar.

That said, Ferrari’s straight line speed advantage might shrink since Mercedes, Renault, Honda and Ferrari themselves are expected to bring their third of fourth power unit upgrades to Belgium. If not this weekend, then certainly for Monza.

Of course, it could go the other way and Ferrari may extend their power unit advantage. The development battle is always fascinating in F1 and I cannot wait to see how things pan out on a circuit that will definitely given an insight as to who has the best straight line speed with so many full throttle sections.

Whilst Vettel will be looking to end his winless streak, Leclerc will still be searching for his maiden win. Leclerc’s race ended early last year in Belgium as he was part of the turn one collision which saw Nico Hulkenberg hit the back of Fernando Alonso’s McLaren, sending him into the air and over the top of Leclerc’s Sauber.

However, a year earlier in Formula Two, Leclerc was dominant. He took pole position and won the Feature Race by 20 seconds only to be disqualified due to excessively worn skidblocks. The young Monegasque recovered brilliantly to finish 5th from the back in the Sprint Race, less than four seconds behind race winner, Sergio Sette Camara.

If you add everything up, Vettel and Leclerc have been evenly matched in my opinion in 2019. Both have made mistakes but both have shown great speed and excellent performances at times too. Surely, one (if not both) of them will win a race at some point in 2019. The season would be an utter disaster for Ferrari if they went 21 races without a win.

Mercedes will be Ferrari’s biggest threat and I expect a Mercedes vs. Ferrari duel this weekend. Red Bull won’t be in contention under normal circumstances because if they decide to put a new power unit in the car, Verstappen and his new teammate, Alexander Albon, will have to take grid penalties. The Mercedes and Ferrari drivers will not have to take any grid penalties.

Under new 2019 rules, if multiple drivers have grid penalties due to the gearbox or bits from the power unit, the order will be decided from their qualifying order.

As of writing nothing is confirmed, but I believe McLaren and Renault will be taking a new power unit this weekend too so Verstappen and Albon might not start all the way at the back and instead start 14th and 15th which is much better than being on the back row when the lights go out.

It could be even further up the grid if Toro Rosso take engine penalties (which I’m sure they will if Red Bull do) plus other drivers including Lance Stroll and Kimi Raikkonen are on their power unit allocation limit too, so we could end up with a ridiculous situation where Verstappen ends up starting 10th or 11th because 8-9 drivers will be given grid penalties for exceeding their engine allocation even though he himself has taken a grid penalty.

A pretty silly situation. If F1 is going to stick with these turbo-hybrid power units in the near future, they should up the allocation to four or five. It means the drivers can push harder in the races, they will go out onto the track more in practice and we will see less of these stupid grid penalties.

This season hasn’t been so bad but with only three power units allowed for 21 races, the teams were always going to take a new power unit at Spa because it is a power track and they have been busy upgrading and developing the various parts of the engine. Hopefully this is just a one-off.

Even if neither Red Bull driver decides to use a new engine, they will be no match for Mercedes and Ferrari with their new power units (should Mercedes and Ferrari decide to use a new power unit) mainly due to an obvious power deficit and general engine wear.

The track doesn’t suit Red Bull too, especially with cooler temperatures expected on Sunday which will only play into Mercedes’ hands. With less chance of a win, it’s best to take an engine penalty at Spa plus they may not start at the back and you can carve your way through the field with relative ease.

Spa-Francorchamps Kemmel Straight will be filled with the ‘Orange Army’ of Max Verstappen’s Dutch supporters and they might see him slipstreaming and overtaking plenty of drivers on Sunday.

Expect a football-like atmosphere throughout the track with Verstappen’s fan base only getting bigger.

Fans and drivers love Spa-Francorchamps and it will always remain a classic track. But, I can’t help but feel that it is no longer the best on the calendar, because it has slowly but surely been ruined over the last 12 years.

The gravel trap at Eau Rouge was removed 2001 before the Raidillon apex was flattened when the track was changed for 2007. Pouhon no longer has gravel on the outside, Rivarge, Blanchimont and other parts of the track all have tarmac run-off so the fear the track used to have and the character has all gone in my opinion.

Now, it is just like any other modern day track and any mistake is not costly and the challenge has dropped substantially.

Kimi Raikkonen has won the most races at Spa and is often seen as the King of Spa. Misfortune meant he could not challenge for victory in 2017 or 2018 but this weekend is a big opportunity to score some big points with Alfa Romeo on a track he loves.

It will also be interesting to see if the midfield pecking order has changed and whether McLaren have been reeled in or broken away from the midpack.

Renault and Haas will be hoping they have been able to understand the car and develop their packages to get back into the top 10 following recent struggles. In the case of Haas, they will run ‘refined upgrade packages’ after Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen ran different designs in the last three Grand Prix.

With multiple grid penalties expected, we should see lots of overtaking. Will the teams decide to hold on for another week and take a new engine at Monza, or will the teams play it aggressive and make the most of a brand new power unit?

Ferrari are favourites for qualifying, Mercedes have to be favourites for the race. The last four F1 races have been fantastic, will Spa deliver another classic?