F1 Preview: Can the Excitement Continue in Hungary?

Three great Grand Prix has got people falling in love with Formula One again after many criticised the sport following the dull French GP in June.

Austria was a purists classic, Britain gave us brilliant battles, Germany was simply crazy, what will Hungary deliver?

Budapest has thrown up some classic races in the last 10 years. Jenson Button’s 2011 win with McLaren in mixed conditions, Daniel Ricciardo’s sensational drive in 2014 and Sebastian Vettel’s emotional and stunning effort in 2015 were just a few classic Grand Prix in recent years.

The weather looks set to be dry throughout the weekend, so rain will not play its part as it so often has at the Hungaroring.

Even with the huge amount of aerodynamics on the cars, Hungary remains a downforce track which should bring Red Bull into play. That said, Red Bull have only won in Hungary just twice (2010 with Mark Webber and 2014 with Ricciardo) so we should not overhype them too much.

Max Verstappen though is the form driver, winning at the two ‘ring’ tracks this year (Red Bull Ring and Hockenheimring) and if he can qualify on the front row then it will definitely be game on. I find it remarkable that Verstappen has still not had a pole position in Formula One because he has had his chances (Monaco and Mexico last year for example) but has not been able to execute when it matters most.

The Dutchman holds the record of the most wins without a pole position (seven wins) but I’m sure he doesn’t mind not qualifying first because the victory on Sunday is much more important, although it would be nice to break the duct.

Since Austria, Red Bull have made significant gains in the aerodynamics, chassis and tyre department. Honda are doing a fantastic job so far but the work being done in Milton Keynes is equally as impressive because Red Bull did not look good after the first 4-5 Grand Prix.

They have closed the gap to Mercedes and crucially got on top of how to work the thinner tread Pirelli tyre which troubled them earlier in the season. As mentioned last week, I think Red Bull can challenge Mercedes at most of the remaining races and Hungary will be a good chance to see if they can beat the Silver Arrows on outright pace.

Ferrari should not be discounted too. Sebastian Vettel won here in 2015 and 2017 and the wet qualifying session hampered Ferrari last year, giving Lewis Hamilton a relatively easy win. Slow to medium speed corners and corners which follow on from one another have been Ferrari’s weakness this year which means on paper they will not be able to fight Mercedes.

I think they can. Recently, they have definitely made gains in those areas and whilst it might not be through upgrades, it is mainly down to working the tyre. Just like Red Bull, Ferrari have made big gains with the Pirelli rubber as the season has progressed so while the operating window is still small, we are hearing less and less tyre chat as the year has gone on.

Charles Leclerc was the driver to beat in Hockenheim until a fuel system problem put him out of contention in qualifying. Up until then, he was consistently faster than Vettel and at least 0.3+ ahead of the Mercedes for much of the weekend.

Even in the final sector in Germany, Leclerc was losing very little time compared to Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas so that is a really good sign for Ferrari because the last part of the lap is downforce dependent in Hockenheim.

Vettel might be back to great form too after a superb drive last Sunday. He used all of his experience to pull out the result and had Ferrari gambled on the final change to dry tyres, Vettel could have won the race from starting last.

Everyone would be going crazy over that so I hope Vettel has taken confidence from Germany and the smile on his face will remain this weekend. It was very telling to see Vettel’s pace at the end of the Grand Prix in Hockenheim.

The 4-time world champion was by far the quickest driver which reiterated the pace Ferrari had and that they have more than enough potential to win at least once this year. 

The Scuderia squad are bringing upgrades to Budapest so if they are in touch with Mercedes and Red Bull, they will be favourites for the two races following the summer break, Spa and Monza. Budapest is more of a test for Ferrari to see if they are on the right trajectory and are on the right development path.

For me, all eyes will be on the final two sectors. The 2.72 miles Hungaroring contains 14 turns and the middle sector especially requires a good change of direction to flow the car from one bend to the next so the driver can apply the throttle as early as possible.

Overtaking is reasonably difficult so qualifying is important and Saturdays have been pretty good for Ferrari so if they can take pole position, they will be over the moon because Ferrari should not be good in Budapest compared to other tracks coming up later in the year.

Whatever happens, I expect qualifying to be tight and I don’t think Mercedes will have everything their own way.

To me, the huge upgrades Mercedes brought to Germany did not work or not work as much as they were supposed to. In qualifying, they were fortunate Ferrari were unreliable and their pace with Hamilton and Bottas on the dry tyres was shocking.

It was only one race and it is quite possible that Germany was an anomalies and normal service will be resumed. The team will be motivated and ready to bounce back after one of their worst team performances ever but the pressure is on.

Talking of pressure, Bottas is the one who needs a good weekend. Toto Wolff has put the pressure on Bottas to deliver in the races before the summer break and Bottas cracked in Hockenheim and cracked badly.

Maybe Wolff is seeing if Bottas can handle the pressure and we’ll see how he copes this weekend. Being close to Hamilton and getting onto the podium is the minimum Bottas needs but a big mistake at a crucial moment could cost him his Mercedes seat for 2020.

I genuinely think Bottas has not improved that much from last year to this year. All the talk of ‘Bottas 2.0’ is nonsense. Last year, I do think he had some bad luck which made his performances look worse than they were.

He should have won in Bahrain last year, but was genuinely unfortunate in China (a very poorly timed safety car robbed him of victory), Baku (leading the race but had a puncture), France (got hit by Vettel at the first corner), Austria (hydraulics failure) and fell foul to a bad strategy decision from Mercedes at Silverstone.

This is comparing the first half of 2018 to 2019. Not winning last year was still very poor from Bottas but Mercedes would likely have not kept him for 2019 had they knew Esteban Ocon would end up with no seat and had they not made a decision on Bottas so early.

In the first half of 2019, Bottas was very impressive in Australia even with Hamilton’s damaged car. His qualifying has been very good but his race pace is still not on the same level as Hamilton, nowhere near.

Every time Hamilton has been leading and Bottas has been second to him on the track (which happened in Bahrain, China, Spain, Canada, France and even the latter stages of Britain), Hamilton has eased away and Bottas has not been able to challenge him unlike what Hamilton did in Baku (stayed within two seconds of Bottas for most of the race) and Silverstone when Hamilton was all over Bottas.

Unless Bottas as leading, he really is nowhere and he cannot find the extra gear he needs to at least challenge Hamilton when Hamilton is in front of him on the road. Of course, Hamilton is one of the greatest F1 drivers of all time but he won’t be around forever and is Bottas ready to take over the mantle in a few years? I don’t think so. 

If it was not for the extreme pace deficit that Pierre Gasly has to Verstappen at Red Bull, I think Bottas would be the one who fans look at and see that he is not doing a good enough job.

For example, if Hamilton got injured for some reason in the next few rounds, would Bottas be able to step up and still deliver the drivers’ championship? Perhaps not with Verstappen just 22 points behind. I don’t see Bottas coping with the extreme pressure or when he is not leading the race after the first lap.

Hungary will be a pivotal moment in Bottas’s career and he knows it. Sporting greats produce when the pressure is at its highest and when its needed, Bottas had Germany to do that and it did not happen, can he do it in Hungary. We will find out.

If it is a normal, dry weekend then it will be fascinating to see if Mercedes still maintain an advantage over Ferrari and Red Bull or if they have been able to close the gap to possibly get on level terms.

The midfield will be intriguing too as the order was all over the place in Germany so Hungary should give a better picture as to who is leading the midfield pack and who is dropping away.

Don’t expect the huge entertainment we got last Sunday, but more of a race for the purists to see if the second half of the season will be an exciting one.