F1 Preview: Can Hamilton Wrap up the Title in Mexico?

Title number six is an inevitability for Lewis Hamilton and just like the previous two years, he may win the world championship in Mexico City.

Unlike 2017 and 2018 though, he cannot simply dawdle around as he must finish on the podium to have any chance of winning the championship.

Hamilton leads the way by 64 points from Valtteri Bottas and has to outscore Bottas by at least 14 points. It will be a tough ask and realistically Hamilton will have to win with Bottas finishing 5th or lower. Although if Hamilton were to get fastest lap and win, Bottas would have to finish on the podium to keep his hopes alive.

Realistically the championship will be won in USA or Brazil.

Moving onto what to expect from this weekend, Red Bull might be seen as favourites since they have won the last two Mexican Grand Prix.

But, Red Bull have dropped off the ball massively recently. Even though, we did not see their true place last time out in Suzuka (with Max Verstappen’s race ending after just two corners) they were not close in qualifying and were underwhelming in Singapore, a track which should have suited them down to the ground.

To me, it looks like Red Bull are back in a similar position as they were in during the first part of the season. Scrapping for a podium but not capable of winning. Hopefully, this can change this weekend because everyone wants to see Ferrari and Mercedes challenged by other teams and drivers.

Mercedes struggled a lot in Mexico last year, with Bottas finishing a lap behind. It was the Silver Arrows worst race and they will be seeking to rectify their poor performance from 12 months ago.

They fell out of the tyre window completely and had no pace to keep up with the Ferrari or Red Bull drivers. This year, Mercedes have got on top of their tyre issues and with downforce being a big key to success in Mexico City, Mercedes should be fighting for the win.

Remember, Mexico requires Monaco levels of downforce which plays into Mercedes’ hands.

The high altitude of 2240M should bring the engines closer together so Ferrari’s straight line speed advantage may not be as big as usual. To help overtaking the FIA have added a third DRS zone  between turns 11 and 12.

However, due to the thinner air, the slipstream effect is not as big which makes overtaking very hard. Plus, the middle and final sectors are very difficult to follow closely to another car.

The stadium section is good for the fans who get to see the cars for a long time but I can’t help but feel that the layout on that part of the track can be altered to let the cars follow each other more closely so a car can be closer to the car in front coming off the final turn before the best overtaking opportunity into turn one.

From the startline, it’s the longest run to turn one (900M) so the first lap is always exciting. Contact is almost certain and the cars often go three or four wide before they jockey for position as the track tightens up.

In qualifying, Ferrari might be able to gap the field by half a second in sector one alone due to their straight line speed. Should they lock out the front row, we might get another Sochi situation because Ferrari will want to keep a 1-2 after the first lap so Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc may need to work with each other on the run down to turn one.

Mercedes can only win through strategy and tyre management. I do not see them overtaking any Ferrari car on track.

Something that could save Mercedes is the weather. As of writing, there is a strong chance of rain on Saturday and/or Sunday. With the high altitude, there is always a good chance of rain and for the last few years, the chance of precipitation in Mexico has been high but it never arrives.

Hamilton in a Mercedes is a very tough package to beat in the rain. Should it rain, the track will be incredibly slippery due to the type of tarmac that is used on the 2.67 mile Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. It will be like driving on ice.

Historically the Renault power unit has been very strong at high altitude. Red Bull dominated the previous two races in Mexico despite the Renault engine having less power than Ferrari and Mercedes.

Expect McLaren to be very strong too since their high downforce package has proved to put them well clear of the midfield. The McLaren has been very good on its tyres too and tyre degradation was very high last year.

The gap to McLaren and the front three teams could be closer than usual and should there be any slip-ups at the front, Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris may pull off something special.

Racing Point have come good recently and should be fighting for some world championship points whilst Haas and Alfa Romeo have not been able to keep up with the development race.

A championship is up for grabs, can Hamilton seal title number six this weekend?