F1 Preview: Back to Barmy Baku for F1 Circus

Heading to the streets of the Baku City Circuit is exactly what Formula One needs after a dire 1000th world championship race in Shanghai.

The last two Azerbaijan Grand Prix have served lots of drama, fantastic action and moments that will be archived into the F1 history books.

In 2017, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton clashed wheels behind the safety car, Daniel Ricciardo ended up winning in style from 10th on the grid and Lance Stroll got onto the podium.

In 2018, the Red Bull drivers crashed into each other into turn one after a battle which went on for 30 laps prior to the almost inevitable collision. Then, Romain Grosjean crashed behind the safety car (in which his engineer said “I think Ericsson his us” even though Ericsson was nowhere near Grosjean). Vettel went for a move on the safety car restart for the lead but could not pull if off and dropped positions before Valtteri Bottas (the race leader) ran over a piece of debris with three laps to go and suffered a puncture, forcing him to retire from the race and gifting teammate Hamilton his first win of the season.

What will 2019 give us?

Mercedes have scored three 1-2 finishes from the three Grand Prix this year and must be favourites going into this weekend’s race. They have had the perfect start. No matter what you think about Ferrari’s “superior” power unit or Ferrari’s pace “advantage” you just know that once qualifying comes round, Mercedes will turn their engines all the way up and they will have found the right operating window for the Pirelli tyres and before you know it they take a front row lockout by a few tenths.

Hopefully we will not get that. Ferrari should be good around Baku. Many thought that they would in Shanghai and we all saw how that turned out. There is a 2.2KM flat out section from turn 16 all the way through the full throttle kinks of turns 17, 18, 19 and 20 before a long run across the start and finish lines into the braking zone of turn one. If the Ferrari power unit is as mighty as some people say, they really should be licking their lips.

My view is that the Ferrari power unit is not that much better than the Mercedes one in terms of performance. Straight line speed is not just about the power unit remember. It is also about drag. It is more than possible that the reason the Ferrari is faster in a straight line is due to the aerodynamics.

It may explain, to a partial extent, why the Ferrari is slower than the Mercedes in the corners but then gains on the straights due to the aerodynamic route they have gone down (a less draggy car perhaps). That said, in Shanghai the time deficit that Ferrari had to Mercedes in qualifying was nearly all lost in the final sector – the part of the track which contained the long 1.1KM straight. So it does not make any sense.

As said before in many F1 preview and F1 Talk articles the current specification of Pirelli tyres are extremely sensitive. It seems ever since 2017 the tyres have become more and more sensitive which is good in a way because it can create unpredictability but it is not good because the tyres are now far too much of a factor in terms of performance and laptime.

Also, the tyres being so temperature sensitive means that following a car closely for more than a lap is almost impossible as you will just overheat your tyres and then end up dropping back if you can’t overtake. For me, the tyres are more of a reason than the aerodynamics of the current F1 cars as to the lack of racing at some tracks.

Speaking of tyres, Baku will almost certainly be a one-stop race, providing it is green flag running all the way. If a safety car does come out at the right time, teams may opt for a second stop so it is a bit easier to generate temperature on the restart – just like we saw last year. Baku is a relatively smooth track so it does not hurt the tyres and due to the low ambient and track temperatures the cars will just get quicker and quicker across a race stint.

The Baku City Circuit is very much an American-esque street circuit with medium to low speed 90 degree corners following each other one after another. The only exception is the ‘Castle’ section and turn 15. In a way, it makes the setup much easier for the engineers because so many of the corners are similar.

It is just about how much rear wing you take off the back of the car to give you straight line speed over downforce. For the drivers, confidence is always key but around street circuits like Baku or places such as Monaco and Singapore you need to have a clean weekend. Not crashing or going down the escape road multiple times during free practice is paramount.

If we see a crash in the race there will almost certainly be a safety car, unless a driver can limp back to the pits or get to a safe area behind a marshal’s post. The safety car restarts are always fun at Baku as the safety car peels off at the start of the third sector so there is only one proper corner you have to take. It leaves the race leader in a highly vulnerable position as the car(s) behind can simply slipstream you all the way down to turn one and get alongside/overtake you.

Personally, I absolutely adore that prospect. There is no DRS involved (as DRS is only allowed two laps after a SC restart or the start) so it is a pure battle of engine power and driver skill. How late do you dare brake with cold tyres and cold brakes? How much risk are you willing to take? Do you look to attack or do you intend to defend? I find it fascinating and the Baku circuit allows a driver to think about these things, especially on a safety car restart.

Red Bull could give Mercedes and Ferrari more of a run for there money in Azerbaijan, especially if Max Verstappen is on fine form. Red Bull have shown signs of speed at Baku in the last two years but have not been able to put things together on Saturday and Sunday, apart from Ricciardo’s slightly lucky win in 2017. The circuit should suit the car and it is probably Red Bull’s best chance for a win until Monaco. Red Bull have so often in the turbo-hybrid era picked up wins after a few incidents at the front or a chaotic race. Pierre Gasly may struggle again as Baku is a pure confidence circuit and at the moment the Frenchman’s driving style is nowhere near suited to the car.

It’s the exit of the corners Gasly is struggling the most with, unable to plant his foot down in the traction zones knowing the car is going to stick. As many motorsport fans know, the more speed you carry out of a corner, the more you carry into the following straight so this is a massive problem for Gasly and he will need to adapt quickly. His saving grace is that at Toro Rosso, neither Alexander Albon or Daniil Kvyat are good enough (at the moment) to be Verstappen’s teammate.

Albon is still very inexperienced and is doing an excellent job; but he is not the shining star Verstappen was and Kvyat was the driver who Verstappen replaced so it does not make much sense to put him back in a Red Bull unless he starts dominating Albon. It gives Gasly some time to get up to speed and the Frenchman needs to deal with the pressure he will inevitable receive from the media and perhaps inside the team.

Away from the F1, and just a note that Formula 2 also heads to Baku for the second round of their 2019 championship. Luca Ghiotto heads the championship by just two points over Nicholas Latifi with Sergio Sette Camara in third.

Formula Two + Baku = Guaranteed action and excitement. If you get a chance of following any of the F2 races then I advise that you do because the previous F2 races at Baku have all been classics and if F1 does not deliver, F2 always will.

Overall, it is going to be a fantastic weekend on four wheels. F1 and F2 are at Baku, Formula E head to Paris, WTCR are at the Hungaroring, WRC are in Argentina, Catalunya plays host to the World RX and the BTCC is at Donnington Park. That is just some of the action, it promises to be a brilliant weekend in Baku and across the motorsport globe.