F1 German GP Preview: Can Hamilton win on German soil?

After Moto GP had their weekend of racing in Germany at the Sachsenring, Formula One returns to Hockenheim after its absence from last year’s calendar. Last time out it was Sebastian Vettel who won at Lewis Hamilton’s home race so Hamilton will be looking to return serve this weekend in Germany.

Lets talk about the manic midfield before we talk about the “Drive for Five.”

There are two German drivers on the current grid, Vettel of course, with the other being Nico Hulkenberg. Nico is still very much underrated and was best of the rest last time out at Silverstone, also lying best of the rest in 7th place in the championship. Amazingly, he still doesn’t have a podium in F1 from any of his 145 starts so perhaps a crazy race can finally give him a top 3 result, and there’s no better place for “The Hulk” to take a maiden podium.

Expect Haas to be strong again in Germany. We must remember that nightmare start to the season for Haas when they were on for a brilliant points haul at Albert Park before the pitstops for Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen went completely wrong. Without that then they would be 4th in the Constructors’ Championship, ahead or Renault. They also haven’t maximised their results unlike Renault although I believe they have a faster car.

Magnussen has done a very good job whereas I can’t say the same words for Grosjean. When the Haas VF-18 has been quick, it seems Grosjean is always involved in an incident. I thought that his excellent 4th place in Austria was going to be the start of some momentum and form for the Frenchman but the collision with Carlos Sainz in Silverstone was just another incident to add to the list of “what is Grosjean doing” moments. Sometimes it’s not his fault but a good racing driver can find themselves out of any incidents, not just causing an incident.

A Frenchman who is doing as well as the national football team is Esteban Ocon. The Force India car isn’t as fast as it was last year. It doesn’t help that the Mercedes engine is no longer the best which means that the Sauber and Haas cars have caught up in performance and Force India are battling very hard just to get into the points. Ocon is doing a stellar job considering that Sergio Perez, his teammate, is no slouch himself.

Renault have said themselves this week that they are looking at Sainz alternatives (clearly something is telling them Ricciardo will move away from Red Bull and Sainz will be forced to go to Red Bull to fill that seat, remember Sainz is on loan). I believe that Ocon is top of Renault’s list if Sainz was to move. Essentially, if Ricciardo moves then the market will be blown wide open and Ocon will be a target for many teams.

Without spoiling the party though. I don’t see much changing in “silly season” other than Raikkonen retiring. But even that looks less and less likely now.

Total number of points scored during F1’s Triple Header – (France, Austria and Britain)

         Team               Points

• Ferrari             98
• Red Bull          65
• Mercedes        61
• Haas                32
• Force India     21
• Renault           14
• McLaren           8
• Sauber              4
• Toro Rosso      0
• Williams           0

This is an interesting table for many reasons.

Firstly, Toro Rosso didn’t score any points and it looks like they aren’t able to keep up in terms of development with their rivals. It should come to no surprise because Toro Rosso have always started seasons well and then dropped away during the hybrid era.

McLaren are also developing slowly but we all know about the problems they have. My thoughts on them even before Eric Boullier resigned can be found here – McLaren’s Massive Problem.

Mercedes were outscored by not just Ferrari but Red Bull as well. Mainly due to their double DNF in Austria. Toto Wolff this week has said that Mercedes had the fastest car over the triple header and have had to limit the damage rather than try and extend a points advantage in both championships. France and Austria was Mercedes territory but I think Ferrari were quicker in qualifying trim at Silverstone but Mercedes had the edge in the race. It is super close and the points the Brackley based team have dropped over the last few rounds may be pivotal as to how the championship pans out.

Lets look ahead to this weekend’s race.

Since 2014, F1 has only gone to Germany every other year. Why? It was because the Nurburgring pulled out of its contract to host the German GP on odd numbered years due to financial issues. Hockenheim cannot host an F1 race every year and 2018 may be the last one for a while.

The contract runs out at the end of this year and Hockenheim wants a new “risk free” deal. The marketing director, Jorn Teske, has suggested going back to the alternating of the German GP like it was between 2008 and 2013. This is what I want to see as well.

Crowd attendances have lowered year on year since Michael Schumacher’s Ferrari days and the old scary Hockenheimring which went through the forests. It’ll be interesting to see what numbers are like this year with the revival of Ferrari back towards the top and a German driver leading the world championship.

Who will this track suit? It will be hard to tell because these new, wider, higher downforced cars haven’t run at this track yet. The last time F1 came was before the new 2017 aerodynamic regulations overhaul. Also, something that’s clear about this 2018 season is that there is no pattern and what you expect doesn’t happen.

Mercedes were meant to be dominant at Silverstone and awful at Monaco but it wasn’t the case. Ferrari were meant to be poor in China and Canada but it wasn’t the case. Safety cars, reliability, penalties have all got in the way of a clear picture of the 2018 championship. It’s these kind of championships that I love though.

Without sitting on the fence I do think it will be really close. I don’t see one team dominating and if there is then I think it will be Ferrari. I see it panning out in a similar fashion to Silverstone but with Red Bull being much closer. It will come down to the driver to see if they can make the difference when it really matters.

Daniel Ricciardo is expected to take at least a 10 grid place penalty this weekend. He is on the limit on all of his engine components so expect him to take a flood of penalties that will put him at the back of the grid. Watching him come through the field should be fun! Annoyingly, he will definitely have to take more penalties at some point because there’s no way he can get to the end of the season without taking more engine components.

The ultrasoft, soft and medium tyre compounds will be used this weekend. The supersoft tyre has been skipped. It will be interesting to see in Q2 on Saturday if the top teams will qualify on the soft or ultrasoft tyre because the tyre you set your fastest lap on in Q2 is the tyre that you start on (if you progress to Q3). I remember that the 2016 race had more tyre degradation than was expected so I hope we get the same case this weekend so that there will be a mix of strategies.

We will see no more of that thinner tyre tread this season which was used in Spain, France and Britain. What you see this weekend and how the tyres react on the different cars will be a good outlook as to who uses their tyres hard and which teams don’t. Tyres as ever will be the deciding factor because the best tyre operating window is so small these days; something I’m not in favour of.

There will also be an additional third DRS zone, which seems to be the case for most tracks now. It will be down the start/finish straight with the detection zone for not just that zone, but for the one that follows on the straight immediately afterwards between turn 1 and turn 2, just before the final corner. If the action is anything like what we got at Silverstone then we should be in for a treat.

Weather report? It’s usually dry wherever F1 goes so expect the same this weekend. High temperatures could mean that there are showers around and at the moment, Saturday looks the most threatening. We’re more than halfway into the season and we’ve had not rain in qualifying or the race so it will surely change at some point!

Something that does amaze me is that two very different teams in Mercedes and Ferrari with thousands of people on each team trying to find every little advantage they can are so close. Every little upgrade, every little bit more understanding by the teams of how their car works with which tyre compound, what temperatures, what setup and ultimately what sort of job the drivers can do over a weekend as the bar gets raised week in week out yet it comes down to nothing on the stopwatch is mesmerising.

Both teams have build incredible machines. The hard work and the dedication by every member on and off the track isn’t praised enough. Unfortunately, with it being so close the championship will be decided on luck as well as reliability and the driver making the most of any opportunity they can get. Someone will have to lose and the pain will be horrible considering the sacrifice that people have put into the cars.

So then, sit back, relax and instead of getting distracted by the football which took over our lives for the past month, do tune into the German GP. I don’t want to hype it up too much because then I’ll jinx it.