Bottas v Ocon: The decision to decide the 2019 F1 drivers market

As the 2019 summer break is in full-swing following a dramatic Hungarian GP, so too is the dynamic drivers’ market which will decide the future of drivers up and down the grid, and in doing so, the shape of the 2020 Formula 1 grid.

The most significant seat up for grabs this year is the second Mercedes seat alongside Lewis Hamilton, as after a positive start to the year, Valtteri Bottas has had more bad days than good days since his last win at Azerbaijan back in April, and with Esteban Ocon in the wings, Mercedes have a viable alternative to the Finn. But once is all said and done, will Mercedes invest in the fiery Frenchman or the reserved and supporting Finnish racer?

Valtteri Bottas is in his third season at the Silver Arrows. After being chaperoned at Mercedes last minute in 2017 following Nico Rosberg’s shock retirement, the Finn enjoyed a solid first season, accumulating three wins in Russia, Austria and Abu Dhabi alongside four pole positions at Bahrain, Austria, Brazil and Abu Dhabi to end the year third in the championship.

By contrast, 2018 was a terrible season for the Finn with two pole positions in Austria and Russia being his only significant achievements of the year. He was classified a distant fifth in the drivers’ standings behind his team-mate and runaway champion Hamilton, along with both Ferraris’ of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen as well as the Red Bull of and Max Verstappen.

So at the end of 2018, Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff said when asked by Autosport how Bottas could reset after he became the first Mercedes driver since 2012 to go an entire season without a race win, Wolff said:

“He said to me that he just wants to disappear back home, recharge the battery. Forget, recover and recuperate, and then come back next year. It has just been very long. I can understand his frustrations.” – Toto Wolff, on Bottas.

So while he was retained for 2019, Bottas knew that he would have to hit the ground running to secure his long-term future at the team. Despite demonstrating flashes of brilliance at Force India, Mercedes young driver Esteban Ocon was dropped after Lawrence Stroll purchased the team out of administration which meant that his son Lance would partner team leader Sergio Perez at the newly-renamed Sport Pesa Racing Point F1 Team. Therefore, as no other team was willing to employ him due to his strong links with Mercedes, the Silver Arrows confirmed after the 2018 Abu Dhabi GP that the Frenchman would be their reserve driver for the 2019 season.

That was just the encouragement he needed, as after a hefty dose of winter porridge, the Bottas in the early part of the season was a force to be reckoned with as he began the season with a win in Australia by almost 20 seconds over his five-times world championship-winning team-mate Hamilton. He followed that up with a second win in Baku as well as poles in China, Azerbaijan and Spain and was only six points behind the number one driver at the Silver Arrows heading to the Monaco GP. So that was job done for Bottas in terms of securing his long-term future at Mercedes, right?

Not exactly. The next seven races have been sub-optimal for Valtteri with one pole and no victories to his name in this very frustrating part of the season with Red Bull and Max Verstappen now becoming the resurgent force in F1, as the Dutchman won two of the last four races before the summer holidays. Mercedes need to know that Bottas can be there to help the team in their fight with Max, not only as a supporting role, but to take on the Dutchman himself should Hamilton call an end to the twilight of his F1 career.

In terms of qualifying pace, Bottas is on par with Hamilton, just trailing the most successful qualifier in F1 history 7-5 after the first twelve races is impressive, albeit 0.951 s slower over the first twelve races of the season.

Come race day, the Finn lacks racing nous and his ability to get his elbows out not only with his team-mate but with his fellow racers is what separates him from them. For instance, the series of events that led to his worst finish of the year at Budapest was caused by his poor wheel-to-wheel fighting with Hamilton which allowed Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc the opportunity to overtake. It was contact with both Lewis and Charles that caused damage to his front-wing and meant he crossed the chequered flag eighth in a race that he could have won.

So as Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff said very publicly at last weekend’s Hungarian GP that it was between Bottas and Ocon as to who would join Hamilton in 2020, how does the Frenchman stack up by comparison?

In 2014, the Frenchman won the European F3 Championship before backing it up the following year with the GP3 Series title. That gave him a postcard to Formula 1 and he made his Grand Prix debut with Manor Racing at the 2016 Belgian GP. His two years at Force India alongside Sergio Perez saw the two men equally-matched over the course of their two years together.

In qualifying, the Frenchman headed his team-mate Sergio Perez 23-18 during their two season head-to-head and was an average of 0.041 s quicker during that time. As for the races, if you discount retirements for either driver, they beat one another sixteen times a piece. So considering how well-regarded Perez is within the paddock, and if you apply the same formula, the Mexican leads Stroll 7-3 despite the Canadian being five points ahead after the Hungarian GP weekend.

So Ocon has shown that not only does he have the speed in qualifying over one of Formula 1’s most respected racers, but has the ability to be consistent and bring points home for the team when it matters. Thus, the Frenchman finished the first nineteen races of his career on the bounce and won the GP3 Series title in 2015 despite only scoring race victory. His consistency was so pronounced that the term Oconsistent was well-established throughout the paddock and has been a well-regarded driver ever since.

But, the Ocon-Perez dynamic at Force India had a tinge of the Hamilton-Rosberg rivalry that had just elapsed at Mercedes. The pair had their fair share of run-ins during their tenure as team-mates, such as Baku 2017, Spa Francorchamps 2017 and Singapore 2018 to name a few. So after Toto Wolff famously pronounced that Mercedes would ‘never again’ allow such a personal rivalry to engulf the team, would they risk that in order to promote one of the hottest prospects in F1.

However, should they retain Valtteri and let Ocon leave their young drivers’ programme to go to either Haas or Renault, it would not take long before the Frenchman ends up in a rival car and join his fellow karting rivals in Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen at the forefront of F1. The only question for Mercedes is whether they will help him to do that at the Silver Arrows with only the potential risk to complete harmony for Lewis Hamilton.

It has was reported this week that Mercedes will give Bottas what Team Principal Toto Wolff describes as a ‘soft landing’ should he not be retained for 2020, adding:

“We have a responsibility for our juniors and for the ones who are in the car with us right now.”

So should Mercedes join Ferrari and Red Bull by giving the next generation a chance to shine, it is likely that Bottas will have a guaranteed future in Formula 1. Now we just have to wait and see what Mercedes decide…