Opinion: Will Fabio Quartararo leave Yamaha at the end of the season?

With 2022 MotoGP testing done, talk has already begun about where riders will be racing in 2023. With only three riders confirmed for next season there is likely to be a grid shuffle before then.

One significant rider who does not yet have a deal for next year is reigning champion, Fabio Quartararo.

The current Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP rider has been a Yamaha rider ever since he entered the class in 2019. However, the Frenchman has been open about how the 2021 Yamaha had a disadvantage when it came to top speed.

If Yamaha does not give Quartararo what he wants, there will most likely be the opportunity for him to move to a different manufacturer. There are likely only two manufacturers that Quartararo would be interested in joining, if he did leave the team that gifted him his first World Championship.

Lenovo Ducati Team

One team that Quartararo could potentially join is Ducati, there are obvious positives around Ducati, but there are also negatives!

The positives are that Ducati were the 2021 Constructors Champions and the bike has more top speed than the Yamaha. Based off of Quartararo’s initial complaints, Ducati would be an ideal choice for the 22-year-old.

However, there may be some issues if this is where the Frenchman wants to go. One problem is that Ducati may not be able to accommodate the reigning champion.

With eight bikes currently in their MotoGP roster the team would not only have to find space, but balance him out with their current riders. Of those stars, the four main riders are: Francesco Bagnaia, Jack Miller, Johann Zarco and Jorge Martin. These four riders are certainly top five challengers and some of the champions key title rivals, so where would Quartararo fit into this.

The Frenchman would only get a shot if one of these four jump from Ducati to another manufacturer.

The other issue that Quartararo may face is that his riding style may not match the Ducati bike. Historically riders who have left Yamaha to join Ducati have not had great success.

Three notable riders who have made this switch are: Cal Crutchlow, Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi. If you look at these three riders combined they had 255 podiums with Yamaha, but at Ducati they had 11. Lorenzo had the most success after the swap as he won three races, but even to do this he had to drastically change how he rode a bike.

All Quartararo has ever known in MotoGP is the sweet handling Yamaha M1 with an inline four engine. Ducati meanwhile has historically struggled when turning, but it does have a booming V4 engine!

Repsol Honda Team

Another team that Quartararo could join is the Repsol Honda Team.

Honda have produced a new RC-213V for the 2022 season and it seems like it is a step in the right direction. The new bike has a more stable front end and after testing, the riders quoted seemed happy with the new machine.

However, Repsol Honda are another with a plethora of talent in their ranks, from the ever improving Pol Espargaro and the eight time world champion, Marc Marquez. Marquez is one of the riders who is contracted for 2023 and even despite this, it seems unlikely Honda would not get rid of the Spaniard before then.

Would Honda get rid of Espargaro? Probably not after how well he did in testing. The only way I could see Quartararo in Repsol Honda orange in 2023 is if Espargaro has a diabolical start to the season and Honda look for a new direction.

Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP

The last team Quartararo could race for in 2023 is perhaps the most obvious one, Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP.

The reigning champion could stay with the team that allowed him to win the MotoGP title. Yamaha have found themselves in a position where they have to do everything they can to keep Quartararo. For the coming season, Yamaha have three other riders, these are: Franco Morbidelli, Andrea Dovizioso and Darryn Binder.

There are potential pitfalls with all three of these riders.

Franco Morbidelli is recovering from a knee injury and may take a while to get back up to speed. Andrea Dovizioso is 35 and will be 36 when the season ends making him unable to carry the long term future of Yamaha. He may have lost his competitive edge after half a year off as well.

Darryn Binder meanwhile is a rookie, who has made the jump from Moto3 to MotoGP and may struggle from the change in bikes.

So, Yamaha potentially only have one rider who is a front runner this year, which is Quartararo!

In theory Yamaha should do everything they can to keep the young Frenchman, but other manufacturers may try to swipe him away from the Iwata factory.