F1 Preview: Will Mercedes be Formidable in France?

After the prestigious Le Mans 24 Hours last weekend, it’s time for Formula One to take centre stage in France with the French Grand Prix.

Ironically, in 1906, the first ever Grand Prix and that was held at Le Mans. Fast forward, 113 years and the Circuit Paul Ricard acts as F1’s French host, having returned to Formula One last year.

Toyota took an impressive 1-2 in Le Mans on Sunday and Mercedes will be looking to do the same this Sunday, and like their Japanese counterparts, it is pretty tough to bet against them doing so.

Out of the next few races on the F1 calendar (France, Austria, Great Britain, Germany), the 3.6 miles Circuit Paul Ricard should be Mercedes hunting ground as their biggest rivals, Red Bull and Ferrari will not be able to keep up due to the track’s characteristics.

Why is this so?

Paul Ricard has some very long corners which is perfect for the longer wheelbased Mercedes. They locked out the front row this time last year and would likely have gone on to score a 1-2 had Valtteri Bottas not been hit by Sebastian Vettel going into turn one. That was with an advantage that was miniscule, this year the Mercedes advantage over the rest of the field is substantially larger. Anything other than a Mercedes 1-2 will be a surprise.

As shown in Canada and Bahrain, the Ferrari is a match for Mercedes on shorter radius corners and tracks where power and straight line speed are vital. Although Paul Ricard does have the 1.1 miles Mistral Straight – with a chicane in the middle – the rest of the circuit does not play to Ferrari’s strengths and unless they can make a huge amount of time in a straight line (0.5 sec+) they will not have the overall laptime of Mercedes.

In Spain and Monaco, the Ferrari lost a lot of time in corners which follow one another as they lose the tyre window. Unless they have sorted it, a similar result to those Grand Prix can be expected.

Honda are bringing a second upgrade to France which will look to propel Red Bull closer to Mercedes. Both Red Bull drivers will take the upgrade, as will Daniil Kvyat. Kvyat will take a 10-grid place penalty because of this as he has already used three engines (the maximum engine limit) before the midpoint of the season. Alexander Albon will continue with the previous specification.

This upgrade will still not be enough to catch the Silver Arrows but I am expecting a really good fight between Red Bull and Ferrari this weekend. Mercedes might be in a league of their own but the battle for the podium will be an intense fight.

Red Bull do not have as good of a chassis compared to last year (relatively) and Max Verstappen has admitted this. Arguably, they had the best chassis in 2018 but in 2019, Mercedes are superior on that front too.

Nevertheless, the Red Bull chassis is still good enough to fight Ferrari with and the first and final sectors should bring Red Bull into play in France. Don’t forget, Red Bull were 2nd and 4th last year in Le Castellet.

The French Grand Prix is Renault’s home race and following a fantastic performance in Canada, the team will look to continue that form and possibly break away from the midfield. Nico Hulkenberg believes that the Renault works “everywhere” and if his statement proves true, then Canada marks a key turning point for the French manufacturer.

Double-points finishes must be a minimum and after a tough start to the season, as Nathan Hines pointed out last week: Why Renault’s Fight to the Front has Stalled in 2019, momentum is growing and confidence must be too.

Having talked negatively about Renault prior to Canada, I must say that I am very impressed with their development so far this year. From the months of March through to November, development is everything in F1 and bringing upgrades to each Grand Prix and making them work is essential to a successful season.

The initial reliability woes which were embarrassing for Renault in the first few races seemed to have been wiped away with both McLaren and Renault sustaining very good reliability in recent races. The power unit is really coming along (possibly better than the Honda engine) and the chassis is good too.

If you look at the laptimes in qualifying, Renault improved a lot more compared to Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull which is an excellent sign of things to come. This is the best position Renault have been in, since their return to Formula One in 2016.

Unfortunately, I have to say that I loathe the Circuit Paul Ricard. It is incredibly bland, and just like the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, it was build to be a test track. Just like the Spanish GP, it should not be used for racing (at least not for F1). It is such a poor racetrack.

Any overtaking is a relatively simple pass into the chicane on the Mistral Straight and for the rest of the circuit, the cars cannot follow due to the medium to high speed long turns. That is exactly what creates bad racing for F1.

Something F1 needs, is a greater variety in terms of the circuit layouts and the Circuit Paul Ricard is an advocate as to why the sport needs it.

The blue and red stripes look silly and even though they are meant to slow you down and have significantly less grip than the racetrack, it looks hideous. In the lead up to the weekend, a fan has photoshopped parts of the Circuit Paul Ricard, changing the run-off into grass and it is a huge improvement.

The pit entry has been changed, it is no longer on the right hand side of the main straight as you come out of the final turn, it completely misses the final corner and starts at the penultimate turn. This means you will lose less time in the pits but it will still be nowhere near enough to encourage a two stop strategy, especially due to the time loss a driver will have in traffic – expect a one stop race for most.

Don’t expect firework in France, the track suggests that it will be tough to match the action and drama that we got a fortnight ago in Montreal. But, this if Formula One and usually when you expect a ‘borefest’ something crazy happens and surprises occur.

All it takes is one incident and the race for the win can open up and when F1 is good, it can feel like an incredible motorsport despite the amount of negativity it receives.