F1 Preview: Who will win the 1000th World Championship Race?

Its not actually the 1000th Grand Prix, nor is it the 1000th F1 race or F1 Grand Prix. It is actually the 1000th race to count towards the World Championship.

Confused? You should be. To get to “1000 races” the formula includes a spell with eleven races under the AAA (1950-1955) and then USAC (1956-1960), none of which were actually Grand Prix (Indy500 from 1950-1960).

From 1952 to 1953, the World Championship for Drivers was run to Formula Two regulations so it all means there have been 973 F1 Grand Prix so the official “1000th Grand Prix” will be the 8th race of the 2020 season… that is of course, if you want to be a nerdy stat man.

So with all of that nonsense out of the way, lets get onto the more important stuff; Who will be victorious in the Chinese Grand Prix for what (simplicity’s sake) I am going to call the 1000th F1 race.

Valtteri Bottas leads the championship by a solitary point over teammate Lewis Hamilton and was unlucky to not win the Chinese Grand Prix last year after a safety car was called for debris at the turn 14 hairpin. The Finn will be looking to do go one better this weekend.

Hamilton was off-form this time last year but already seems much more comfortable with this year’s car compared to last year – not want his rivals will want to hear. Hamilton is very good in China, winning five times including a great win in 2011 and a commanding victory in 2014.

But, one of the key talking points coming into the weekend is the Ferrari power unit. Mercedes claim that Ferrari has a 0.4 second of an advantage from the engine. I doubt this claim is true. I do think Ferrari have the edge in a straight line but some of it is about drag. If the Ferrari engine was such a monster then Alfa Romeo and Haas would easily be best of the rest, instead they are in the thick of a crazy midfield battle with McLaren looking like they are the 4th best team (despite having a Renault engine).

Charles Leclerc has a good chance to become the 108th Grand Prix winner whilst Sebastian Vettel will be wanting to bounce back after a costly error last time out in Sakhir. Expect a tight inter-team battle at Ferrari with both drivers pushing each other on which is exactly what the Italian team needs – something they have been missing for years.

Its still early days but I see this season panning out in a similar fashion to 2017, but the other way round. The high downforce circuits (Monaco, Hungary, Singapore etc.) will be the places where Mercedes have the edge and the low downforce tracks will be where Ferrari is king. It will be close throughout the season and as always it will come down to the development race in all departments.

The 3.30 mile Shanghai track should give Red Bull a better chance of challenging Mercedes and Ferrari. Setup issues have been the problem so far with a fix only coming in Spain. The high speed turns should play into their hands. Remember, Red Bull won this race last year with Daniel Ricciardo pulling off some fantastic overtakes to go from 6th to 1st in less than a dozen laps. The team could very easily have had a 1-2 had Max Verstappen not turned Sebastian Vettel around.

I expect Red Bull to be closer but not to challenge for victory if it is a pure out and out race, they don’t quite have the ultimate pace yet but through an incident or a timely safety car they could find the top step of the podium. Pressure will soon start to mount on Pierre Gasly if he does not start to perform. The unpredictability of the Red Bull has meant he has struggled and the Frenchman has not been able to adapt to the setup issues as well as Verstappen.

With the midfield much closer this year, there is no safety margin so Gasly has found himself in the midpack and in positions where he should not be. It is not yet red alert for Gasly but he has to start to find some momentum somewhere and a good indicator of what separates the good and the great drivers is the ability to still be quick in a car which is not to your liking.

I don’t think anyone expects Gasly to beat Verstappen but to be battling for minor points paying positions rather than the podium places is poor. We must give him time to learn but in F1, time is definitely not on your side and you have to deliver almost immediately.

A 1.1KM long straight has created plenty of overtaking in Shanghai since its inaugural race in 2004. In 2016, there was 128 overtakes (the most of any Grand Prix in history). Expect at least half as much this time round.

It is also one of the toughest tracks on tyres with the front left tyre getting a big workout. Pirelli have brought the C2, C3 and C4 tyres so I expect a two-stop race, just like Bahrain. We saw how that created a good strategy race so hopefully we will get a similar situation on Sunday. Watch out for the undercut as it was powerful in China in 2018 but also two weeks ago in Bahrain. Things could get close at the exit of the pitlane as it merges straight into the fast turn one.

We will also get a clearer indication of whether one team is nicer on its tyres or if one team hurts its tyres. The long, high speed turns is the reason why the tyres get such a hammering. It makes the circuit unique in a way and I am a fan of the track layout as it does provide a challenge for the drivers but also provides good racing.

With it being the 1000th world championship event, I hope it is a good one. Shanghai genuinely gives us a good race so even though many fans wanted the 1000th race to be at Silverstone, Monza, Suzuka, somewhere which had a history – at least Shanghai is a decent racetrack and at least its not at Sochi or Abu Dhabi.

At the front things should be close again and in the midfield, it will all be about the driver maximising everything just to get some points. Strategy will be vital in the midpack because if you get caught behind a driver and lose time for just a few laps, you will drop positions.

For the sake of the championship, lets hope Mercedes do not get another 1-2 or else they will have double the amount of points of any other team. After lots of great wheel to wheel action in Bahrain, let the battle continue in Shanghai as someone looks to win the 1000th world championship race.

(And to end with some fun it must be pointed out that the very first F1 race was won by an Italian in an Alfa Romeo so it would be appropiate if Antonio Giovanazzi wins 1000th race.)