F1 Talk: How will Vettel fare against Leclerc?

The inter-team battle that all F1 fans are looking forward to in 2019 is between the 4-time world champion Sebastian Vettel and his new teammate who is a young rising star with nothing to lose and all to gain, Charles Leclerc.

This Tuesday saw Vettel’s first major setback in testing after a front-left failure and while this didn’t injure him, the lost track time will be frustrating for the four-time World Champion who needs to begin the season on the front foot. If, as testing has suggested so far, Ferrari are the quickest team, Leclerc will almost certainly have to be a threat Vettel needs to control quickly.

In September last year, it was announced that Leclerc would replace Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari for the upcoming season, with Raikkonen going back to where he started his F1 career at Sauber. It is believed that Leclerc’s contract is four seasons long, running at least until 2022.

Before this move, it was clear that Vettel wanted Raikkonen to remain at Ferrari. Why? He knows he can beat Raikkonen each race weekend in qualifying and in the race and off track Vettel gets on very well with Raikkonen since the latter isn’t exactly the type of person to play mind games or get in your way.

More importantly, there must be a hint of fear that Vettel would have to face a younger, more hungry and possibly faster driver, in Leclerc, and if he were to get beat then that would not only hurt his reputation but cause the Ferrari team to naturally move to Leclerc’s side. Even if Vettel thinks he can get the better of Leclerc, there must be something in him that thinks he could get beat.

This is coming off the back of the most disappointing season of his F1 career, making mistake after mistake during pressure point moments, when he should have been trying to cross the finish line and take the chequered flag ahead of his championship rival Lewis Hamilton. Instead, he gave Hamilton a far easier ride to multiple race victories and an early 5th world title.

But, Vettel still managed to pick up a win and five other podiums in the second half of the season and his “downfall” was exaggerated by an incredible season from Lewis Hamilton. Vettel was still better than Raikkonen. Even if the Finn wasn’t given the optimal strategy at times and suffered from bad luck; you would rather have Vettel in your team than Raikkonen because over a season he’ll perform better.

I expect Vettel to go to Melbourne much more relaxed and in a better mindset than last year. From pre-season testing so far, the Ferrari looks like it will be capable of fighting for the championship – many believe it will be the car to beat.

It took Michael Schumacher five seasons to win his first title in red, should Vettel win the drivers’ championship in 2019 then he will emulate his hero. But it may not come easily.

Leclerc is smart, humble and able to deliver under pressure and I have been very impressed with his career so far. He changed his driving style after the first few Grand Prix last year because he realised his natural style is not suited to these highly aerodynamic, wider, grippier, F1 cars. He went from a more ‘oversteering’ style to a more neutral, ‘understeering’ style which made him faster and more consistent.

I have talked about how Leclerc’s qualifying is a big strength of his in the past, but he does struggle to put laps together. Last year, the 21-year-old had the worst record of the entire grid for piecing together his theoretical best lap in qualifying.

On only three occasions did Leclerc combine his three best sectors on the same lap, and he also had the second-biggest average deficit between his actual lap time and his theoretical best, lapping 0.132s slower than he could have.

On the other hand though, for Leclerc to just drive out of the garage and go quickly straight away (not necessarily having to build up to a big lap) is a sign of a talented driver. It helps in changing conditions, and if you decide to throw something on the car or go for a big setup change and you only have one shot at improving your time with the new changes.

Leclerc beat Marcus Ericsson 16-5 in the qualifying head to head in 2018 and that includes the first 3 races where Leclerc was trying to set the car up like his F2 car, as soon as he fixed that he’s only been outqualified twice in 18 races. One of those was when he was bettered by Ericsson in Brazil despite that mega Q2 lap which got him into the top 10 during the pouring rain, in which he should not have been able to improve his laptimes.

The Monegasque driver had the biggest average qualifying gap to a teammate over the season of the entire field last year so if qualifying is his “weakness” then it isn’t a bad one.

It is still not on the same level as Vettel who is one of the best qualifiers on the grid. If Leclerc can even get on level terms in qualifying with Vettel that will be an achievement in itself.

You might be thinking that “Leclerc has only beaten an average Marcus Ericsson but we must not forget that he dominated the 2017 Formula 2 season. In his inaugural season, he took eight consecutive pole positions (if you count the Hungary round when he was actually disqualified for an illegal part on the car which did not aid his laptime). Unprecedented stuff.

In F1, his advantage over Ericsson at Sauber was significant and consistent over the whole year. He proved that it was possible to dominate Ericsson in a fashion that the likes of Pascal Wehrlein and Felipe Nasr failed to do because they both lacked those precious few tenths each lap to do as well as Leclerc and earn the right to be considered the next big thing.

Recently, the new Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto has said that Vettel will begin the season as their priority over Leclerc – not what we want to hear. But, you can see why Ferrari have said this.

After all, Vettel is a four-time world champion, has driven for Ferrari for a substantial amount of time now and should beet Leclerc to be honest. Compare this to someone who just has 21 Grand Prix starts and you can see why Ferrari have declared some sort of driver status.

For Leclerc he needs to focus on adapting to Ferrari first. Once he does that, he can start challenging Vettel. If he does well enough, he’ll be able to lead Ferrari’s title challenge but don’t expect him to beat Vettel straight away. Ferrari backing Vettel might just be what the German needs as he likes to know that the team are on his side and will be giving him the tools that he needs to end Ferrari’s 12 year wait for a drivers’ championship. Ferrari need to make Vettel happy and Binotto saying this will do just so.

Should Ferrari be backing the wrong horse then they will quickly retract this philosophy; they are not stupid. McLaren intended Fernando Alonso to be their defacto number one in 2007 and Vettel himself at Red Bull in 2014 and we all saw that things changed very quickly back then. Ultimately, Ferrari just want a red car to cross the finish line first.

I do not think Leclerc will challenge for the title in his first season at a front running team. There will be pressure on him to deliver results but there is much more pressure on Vettel to not make the mistakes that he made last year and to not be beaten by someone with significantly less experience than him.

If Ferrari do have a dominant car then I am so happy that Raikkonen has been dropped because without a doubt, Leclerc is an upgrade from Raikkonen (with all due respect). Leclerc will put up more of a fight but it would still be a surprise to see him come out on top after 21 races and its not unreasonable to think that Leclerc could come out on top.

For Vettel, he must beat Leclerc. Anything less and Ferrari will lose confidence in him and Leclerc will become their new star.