Why 2018 Could be Make or Break for Lando Norris

When it comes to the F1 Feeder ladder, momentum is often key. A misjudged career move into the wrong series, or one too many returns to the same category can kill a drivers chances at getting to Formula 1.

While the big bosses have resigned themselves to the fact they’re unlikely to find a Verstappen-esque 16 year old, any driver who enters their twenties without links to F1 could very quickly find themselves debating which sportscar team has a free space for the following season.

Unlike many though, Lando Norris has made a habit of winning. Many thought that it would be an impossibility to win the FIA European F3 Championship without a Prema Powerteam car (as it had been since 2010), but the teenager proved them wrong.

Prior to that, Norris had effectively won everything he’d set his mind to. Formula Renault 2.0, Toyota Racing Series and MSA Formula (British F4).

His signing by McLaren soon became an inevitability and a F1 seat is now more of a ‘when’, than ‘if’, with the team giving him an opportunity alongside Fernando Alonso in the Rolex 24 this weekend. This isn’t set in stone though and 2018 could very well be his biggest leap.

Before this, his jumps have always been half a step at a time. The introductory year in Ginetta Juniors was proof of this. A chance for Norris to experience the UK circuits and life outside of karts. It’s also most noticeable that this is the only time a full-season did not translate into a title.

Obviously, berating the young Norris for ONLY coming third in his first year of Juniors is ridiculous, but it’s proof that when his focus is on other matters (the World Karting Championship that he won that year) he isn’t infallible.

2018 could mirror this. McLaren will obviously have big plans for the 18-year-old and will likely work Norris throughout race weekends when he gets opportunities with the team, but this mustn’t detract from his FIA Formula 2 ambitions.

In defending his move to Formula Renault 2.0, he told reporters he was in “no rush” to get to F1, seemingly putting FIA Super Licence points behind as a secondary thought. This appears to have changed though.

McLaren have expectations, so do the wider public. Next year will arguably see more mainstream pressure on Norris and coupled with a large jump and secondary commitments, could finally see him lose his winning streak.

In fact the odds are quite stacked against Norris. November’s Abu Dhabi Finale may have been his first taste of the series, but it was hardly positive.

First practice saw him one from last, with qualifying putting him on the seventh row, three places behind fellow Campos Racing driver Alex Palou. His Spanish teammate has hardly been a staple of the Campos team though, only making his debut at Jerez at the round previous. While there, he scored a total of five points for the team.

Norris can hardly be blamed for the engine blowout in race one, but had been falling down the order in the opening laps and in race two kept out of trouble, jumping places when others were forced into mistakes. In the end, other than catch the five car train for ninth led by Nyck De Vries, he had failed to set the world on fire in his first race in front of the F1 sponsors and media.

Now obviously Campos are no title-winning team, finishing one from last in the teams standings, but Norris was clearly fazed by a new car he couldn’t dominate in. In fact just a few weeks before, at Macau, his poor start in the qualifying race had scuppered his chances failing to make the stunning comeback that Sergio Sette Camara and rookie Ralf Aron had shown.

Talking of Sette Camara, the Brazilian will likely be one of Norris’ biggest rivals in 2018. While the records show he failed to finish the Macau GP, his defence of the lead and subsequent crash in the final corner proved he has the race craft to beat Norris on equal footing in the same team.

To add, Camara, after being hurried through the ladder by the Red Bull Junior Program, knows what it’s like to race in F2, having been there for a full year. While the start of 2017 was hardly anything to celebrate, he finally found his feet in the second half, picking up a win and another podium.

While he, along with the rest of the field (and Norris) will have to learn the new Dallara F2 2018 chassis and V6 Turbo engines, the progression he’s made, his familiarity of the circuits and the fact he’s already on par with Norris could be a true test of character for the Brit at Carlin. Sette Camara will likely have less testing though, having already missed the post-season F2 tests, which Norris attended.

Those tests, were much more promising for Norris, topping the first morning session in Abu Dhabi. He remained competitive finishing sixth during the quicker final session before going fifth quickest on Friday.

These one lap showcases prove that Norris can string a good lap together, with lights to flag victories being paramount to his British F4 and European F3 Championship wins. F2 though is a different series.

Reverse grids will force him to weave through traffic and entering with Carlin, a team that has re-entered for 2018 will mean he’s unlikely to be in the most competitive car. In fact, even when Carlin were last in GP2, results were not all that promising with their best success coming from Max Chilton and Felipe Nasr between 2012-14 when the Brazilian picked up third in the driver’s title.

Over the six years, they picked up six wins and was runner-up in the teams championship twice.

Unlike the other series Norris has competed in, it is a virtually impossibility to simply run away and win F2 (GP2). Even with the controversial introduction of DRS, the series has remained focused on close racing, where consistency is key.

While I doubt McLaren would drop him should he not win the title, Norris does have to perform strongly for the Woking team to give him a chance. The performance of another prodigy Stoffel Vandoorne has been enough to secure his seat this year and they’re unlikely to drop Alonso for an untested newbie, so Norris will have to show something special in order to be noticed.

Regardless of his results in 2018, he’ll have 40 FIA Super Licence Points (the minimum requirement) going into 2019, but is set to lose the 12 he recorded for winning MSA Formula at the end of the year. This means he’ll have to secure a fifth place or higher to increase his SLP score, anything less may be seen as a failure.

Even then, McLaren may choose to bench him for a second season. Promoting the fifth or sixth placed F2 driver looks so much worse than promoting the outgoing champion.

And this is where the slippery slope lies. Momentum may have rocketed Norris to become a McLaren test driver and brought an old team back to F2 (GP2), but 2018 will see him face his biggest challenges yet. From a need for hard racing, to a distraction of commitments, a likely uncompetitive car and a quick teammate, 2018 will be Norris’ hardest year to date.

Norris will know that should he trip up, targets will be even higher in 2019.